Many Arsenal fans have hyped up their squad and particularly their manager ahead of their match against the current Premier League champions. They may well live to regret this.
With the Premier League set to return on June 17th, the excitement has slowly been building up around the opening set of fixtures. One game in particular that has caught the interest of many, is Arsenal’s trip to Manchester City on the first day of the season’s reopening.
The main narrative, of course, is Mikel Arteta’s return to the Etihad, where he spent 3 years as Guardiola’s assistant. Having joined Arsenal as manager in late 2019, however, he now has the task of going up against his former side.
Guardiola’s current Manchester City side would be an extraordinarily difficult matchup for any side. Although they aren’t currently having their greatest season, they’ve underperformed heavily, and with a bit more luck, they could easily have been challenging Liverpool for the title.
However, Arsenal fans seem to be under an illusion of their current squad’s strength. At current, they are nowhere near City’s level. Many people have been impressed by the apparent improvement that Arteta has brought to the club. In reality, Arsenal have progressed very little since appointing the Spaniard.
While a few promising early signs are there, they have nothing concrete as of yet to show for their new manager’s work. Statistically, Arsenal are very much in the same position as they were under Emery. Although their style of football might look slightly nicer these days, that means nothing when going up against a side of Manchester City’s caliber.
Since Arteta’s appointment, Arsenal rank 8th for points gained, behind the likes of Everton, Southampton and Wolves in that same period. This represents a slight improvement, as they ranked 10th when under Emery. They’ve also gone up from 1.34 to 1.42 in terms of expected goals per 90.
This is a solid improvement for any side in such a short time period, but it means they still rank 12th for expected goals in the league since Arteta came in. Defensively, it’s a very similar story. They’ve gone from conceding 1.5 expected goals per match to it now being 1.4. This still isn’t great in terms of the context of the league, but yet again it represents improvement.
Most everything is improving under Arteta, but the standard set by his predecessor was embarrassingly low. With time, Arteta’s Arsenal could be a force to reckon with, but for now they remain outstandingly mediocre.
Arsenal’s current style of play could also do them harm in their upcoming fixture. Under Arteta, they have converted to playing much more progressively, looking to play the ball through midfield and get it into their forwards. The increasing minutes for players like Xhaka and Ozil typifies this, as Arteta is looking to play with more possession.
While this is a good mindset to have in general, against a team like City it can cost you if you get it wrong. City’s high-press is relentless, as they tend to play with a five man press. Two of City’s midfield three will step forward and join the wingers in a four behind the lone striker. Against Arsenal, who love to build out of midfield, this should be quite effective.
Typically when Arsenal build out under Arteta, they go through Xhaka, or occasionally Ceballos. One of these players will come deep to get the ball, before laying it on to Ozil or one of the wingers.
In most situations, the Arsenal midfielder has enough time and space to pick out a pass to a player further forward. Against City, this will rarely be the case. The way that City use their midfield to press means the Arsenal player would struggle to find a forward passing option.
When City play against a double pivot, they match their attacking midfielders with the opposing defensive midfielders. They create a line of players in front of their opponents midfield. More often than not, this “shield” of sorts forces the opposition to give up possession.
City move into a 4-1-4-1 formation when pressing, and this allows them to man-mark the opposing midfield. While the wingers stay tight on the full-backs, the midfield three are able to man-mark as well, allowing very little progression through the middle of the park.
While this high pressure approach obviously leaves City exposed at the back at times, it makes it impossible for an opposing team to develop any sort of rhythm on the ball. This will be difficult for this current Arsenal side, who are keeping more and more possession recently. The midfield progression that seems to be a staple of Arteta’s system, will be very difficult to pull off against such an intense press.
Another stumbling block for Arsenal could come from Ozil’s matchup with Rodri. Ozil has been crucial to Arteta, playing the 4th most league minutes since the Spaniard’s appointment. However, he’s at a point in his career where he can easily be marked out of a game.
It’s been very hit or miss with Ozil this season. At points, he’s been running the show for Arsenal from his creative attacking midfield position. However, his lack of mobility due to his age has meant that he’s gone missing in certain matches.
Obviously, Ozil is still a supreme creative passer, but he doesn’t pick up pockets of space like he used to. For example, against Chelsea in late January Ozil touched the ball just 34 times, the lowest of the Arsenal starters bar David Luiz (who was sent off just 26 minutes in). Kovacic and Jorginho stayed tight on Ozil for most of the game, and he wasn’t able to exert his influence.
When going up against a midfield three, or a team who have competent defensive midfielders, Ozil can be very easily marked out of the match. This Chelsea game is just one of many examples from this season in which he has struggled to have any major impact.
Especially against more possession-dominant teams, Ozil can find it hard to leave his mark. He’s influential when his side have the majority of the possession, as he is able to get onto the ball more frequently and get into a rhythm. When he’s forced to play on the break, the intensity and pace of the play doesn’t suit him.
He’s also more comfortable when the opponent lines up with a low block, or don’t press as high. Essentially Ozil thrives when he has more time and space on the ball in order to pick out a pass. His vision and passing accuracy make him great at unlocking deeper defences. Sadly for him, City will give him none of this.
I’ve already mentioned City’s high press and how they look to smother their opponents midfield, but Rodri’s positioning is also something to note. Rodri tends to push quite high, sometimes creating a midfield line of five when pressing. However, there have also been many times this season when he has man-marked an opposing attacking midfielder.
The way that City limit space by pushing their backline and midfield forwards is very effective. Ozil will have very little space to work in as Rodri pushes forwards in order to compress the field vertically. In many situations, Ozil tends to come deep to collect the ball and gain space. Against City, however, this isn’t really a possibility due to how high they press.
Rodri is an incredibly talented defensive player, and if he stays close to Ozil for the majority of the match then the German could find it hard to get on the ball. In truth, City’s midfield structure lends itself perfectly to defending against this Arsenal team, who like to progress the ball through the middle of the park.
In the image above, you can see that Rodri stays close to City’s two attacking midfielders, which closes the space for any opposing midfield players. The backline also pushes up to about the halfway line in order to ensure that there is limited space between the lines.
Arsenal will struggle to gain a foothold in midfield in the match. The high-press that City employ almost always ensures that they’re the dominant side in the match. City have kept less possession than their opponents only once this league campaign, a testament to their outstanding midfield dominance.
City have been far from unbeatable this season, but it’s hard to play your own brand of football against them. Teams like Wolves, Manchester United and even Spurs have been successful against City this season when playing more reactively. City’s most recent game against Manchester United was a great example of this. United almost man-marked their opponents at points during this game, and came out as 2-0 victors.
United altered their usual formation in order to counter City’s system, and nullify their opponents midfield. As a result, City weren’t able to build out from the back as comfortably, and they found it difficult to progress the ball during the match. They took just 6 shots on the night, despite comfortably controlling the possession at 73%.
By putting more pressure on City’s midfield, they weren’t able to create the same number of chances that they usually do. While United left City’s full-backs open, the middle of the field was on lockdown, and City struggled to progress the ball into dangerous areas. Similar things can be said about City’s other losses this season. When City come up against a solid defensive side, focused on reacting to Guardiola’s style of play, they haven’t always found the breakthrough.
This upcoming match will be very dependent on the approach that Arteta takes. If his side play defensive football, and look to limit City’s midfield creativity, they might have a chance. On the other hand, if they continuously look to progress through the middle of the park and play possession-based football, City will most likely exploit them.
Of course, Mikel Arteta has only been in the job for a limited period of time, but from what we’ve seen so far it looks as if he prefers to play on the front foot. This could lead to his downfall here.
He may well prove his worth as a fantastic manager over the next few years, but at the moment he doesn't have the quality of player to dominate a Guardiola side. Although players like Granit Xhaka and Mesut Ozil are fantastic progressors of the ball on their day, the quality of City’s press will likely be too much for them to handle.
If Arsenal spend too much time trying to work the ball through midfield, they’re going to slip up at some point. If you slip up against the likes of Aguero, Mahrez, Sane, Sterling and De Bruyne, you’re as good as dead.
Arteta may be building a dynasty at Arsenal, but dynasties aren’t built within months. Arsenal fans need to get off of their high horses and accept that they don’t have what it takes to beat the reigning Premier League champions.
Nothing that we’ve seen so far would suggest that Arsenal are in a better position for this game than they were three months ago. In fact, some may rightly argue that they are in worse shape. If they try and take the game to City, and continue with this more progressive style of football, they may well experience a thrashing. In terms of the final result, I believe City will come out with a comfortable 2-0 victory.
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