Aston Villa’s Brilliance: One Man Show or Something More?

Aston Villa’s Brilliance: One Man Show or Something More?

Aston Villa have defied all odds this season. After a great escape last campaign, securing their survival on the final day, they’ve bounced back tremendously. They’ve been the surprise package of the Premier League campaign up to this point. But how has Dean Smith managed to turn them around so quickly? Is this simply the work of their main-man Jack Grealish, or perhaps a greater collective effort?

I think it’s fair to say that a lot has gone right for Villa. Certainly, this terrific early season form is more than just the work of one man. At the time of writing, Villa sit in 10th. However, they have three games in hand over nearly every team around them. Unfortunately, Covid outbreaks in their squad have meant that a number of their recent games have been postponed.

This means they are still in a fantastic position. By winning just one of their next three matches, they would shoot up into 7th place, ahead of the likes of Chelsea. In reality, Villa’s fantastic start to the season has put them in the reckoning for European football.

Along with this, both the eye-test and the actual numbers that Villa have been producing show that they are good value for their league position. This means that what their doing could prove to be sustainable. At least up to this stage, they’ve put in the performances to warrant being a Europa League contender at a minimum.

How They’ve Lined Up

This season, we’ve seen Dean Smith make a slight tactical alteration in regards to Villa’s formation. Last campaign Villa operated with a 4-3-3 in more than 50% of their matches. However, this year they have predominantly opted for a 4-2-3-1, a formation that they used just twice in the entirety of the 2019/20 season.

This was the team that they were largely employing towards the start of the season, alternating occasionally with the 4-3-3. However, it was Barkley’s early-season form that led Dean Smith to favor the 4-2-3-1. This not only allowed his side to feature their best personnel but also gave them a number of tactical perks that will be explained shortly.

Smith has changed this ever so slightly recently. While he has maintained the 4-2-3-1 shape, he has made minor adjustments to the personnel. This was largely due to the injury to Ross Barkley but was also influenced by the recent form of a couple of the Villa wingers.

This may not have been Dean Smith’s first choice of lineup when he was forced into playing this way, however, it provides plenty of benefits. The big thing is that Grealish gets to play down the middle where he is undoubtedly more comfortable and has more control over the game.

It also opens up space on the wing for El Ghazi and Traore. El Ghazi in particular has been in fine form. Villa have operated with this front four in their last four matches now. Over this period, they have lost just once, and gained seven points, recording an impressive draw against Chelsea in the process. Whether Dean Smith sees this starting lineup as the future it will be interesting to see.

Villa’s Summer

It’s safe to say that much of Villa’s extraordinary progress can be attributed to their summer window. They recruited fantastically and solved a number of key areas in their squad.

When they were first promoted back to the Premier League at the start of last season, they were incredibly reckless with their spending. An insane €160 million was spent that summer, with 16 players coming into the club. Their transfer strategy seemed chaotic, as they were clearly panicking to get a squad together that could play at a higher level.

Ultimately, for much of the season, it looked as if Villa were doomed for the drop after spending poorly. While they had brought in a few players with quality, their spending was not structured around any sort of style of play. For the most part, they seemed purposeless.

This summer was the complete opposite. Dean Smith and Villa have finally found a direction. Their transfer spending this summer was focused on Dean Smith’s objectives for the upcoming campaign. This time around, he had a much more focused sense of system and playing style in mind.

Villa brought in five players over the summer window, four of whom (with the possible exception of Traore) have slotted directly into the starting lineup. Martinez, Cash, Barkley, and Watkins have all made meaningful contributions thus far.

Villa have done superbly to solidify what was a shaky defence at best last season. In the 2019/20 campaign, they had the 2nd worst defensive record in the league bettering only Norwich and conceding a total of 67 goals. This year it’s been a different story.

It’s safe to say that their defensive additions have played a huge role in this. Aston Villa now have the 2nd best defensive record in the league. Although this is partially down to their relative lack of games played, they still have the 4th best defensive record in terms of goals conceded per game.

This incredible turnaround is in a large part attributed to their tactical changes. However, the signings of Martinez and Cash have been crucial to Dean Smith in terms of implementing his defensive vision.

Aston Villa currently rank 2nd in the league for the amount that they have exceeded post-shot expected goals per 90. Post-shot expected goals refers to how likely a keeper is to save a certain shot. Exceeding this metric typically indicates the quality of a keeper. This particular metric highlights just how important Emi Martinez has been to this Villa side. Essentially, with another keeper in net, Aston Villa would have conceded another 4 goals by this stage of the season.

Cash’s significance can also be seen through his numbers. Cash currently is averaging both the highest amount of interceptions and tackles per game in the Villa squad. His total of 5.2 tackles and interceptions per 90 is 1.6 better than the next best player in the team. At right-back, Cash has been important at both ends of the field but his defensive contribution has been particularly impressive.

I talked briefly earlier about Ross Barkley’s significance in behind Ollie Watkins as a number 10. If he wasn’t injured, you would have imagined that he would have continued to play in this role. Before he pulled his hamstring, Barkley was looking like a crucial player for Smith. In 6 starts he had scored 2 goals and assisted 1, averaging 2.5 key passes per game to boot.

However, Barkley’s role in the squad as an attacking midfielder was only really possible due to the contributions of Villa’s final and most important signing, Ollie Watkins. After Wesley’s incredibly disappointing 2019/20 campaign, Villa were in desperate need of a striker. Watkins was highly sought after. His contribution to Brentford in the Championship nearly led them to promotion through the playoffs.

Since arriving, he’s been superb for the Villains. While his haul of 6 goals may seem slightly underwhelming, it’s his other work that has been so impressive. This season, he’s defined Villa’s style of play.

Watkins’ Influence

In many ways, Watkins has been the key to Villa’s success this year. Last year, Villa were quite complete in a number of areas but they struggled to find goals. In the end, Grealish was their top scorer with 8. Not only is Watkins already approaching that figure, but he’s also massively helped the players around him.

While both Watkins and Wesley provide considerable aerial threats, Watkins has shown his mobility in the final third, something that Wesley was severely lacking. Both strikers could win the ball in the air but Watkins has been far more effective as a mobile target man. Villa are still operating with their direct style that they employed last year. However, they’re finding that they’re able to retain possession up the pitch far more consistently.

This has incentivized the shift in formation. Before, Wesley’s lack of technical quality limited Villa’s ability to play around in the final third. It made sense to operate with two box-to-box midfielders who could make late runs forwards, as opposed to one attacking player who could play around with the frontman. If they had operated with an attacking midfielder last season they would have been rather open defensively, without gaining too much in terms of offensive efficiency.

This season, however, Villa have upped their offensive game massively. Incredibly, they currently have the best expected goals per game record in the league. Dean Smith has turned his side into an offensive machine, and much of this credit can go to Watkins.

What Wakins provides for Villa is a versatile, complete striker. This season he has been averaging more shots, more key passes, and more dribbles than Wesley did last year, as well as providing a generally better sense of the game and his positioning within it.

This seems to have been the final piece in Villa’s puzzle. Their midfield was always a strong suit for them, and with their defence finally looking sturdy, it was their frontline that needed to show big development this year. It’s safe to say that it has.

Villa’s Offensive Plan

With such a drastic improvement being made, surely Villa’s attacking form can be attributed to more than just the signings of Watkins or the talent of Jack Grealish. Smith’s tactical set up is getting the best out of his squad.

This season, Villa have been able to operate effectively with a direct offensive style. Villa rank 12th in the league for possession, yet incredibly they are averaging the most shots per game out of any Premier League side. This shows incredible attacking efficiency.

When they go forward, more often than not they’re able to produce a shot. These statistics also show that they are able to get the ball forward quickly. Villa are one of the best sides in the league when it comes to ball progression.

This season, Villa have progressed the ball in two main ways. The first and perhaps most effective have been longer balls into Watkins as a target man. The change to playing with a 4-2-3-1 has meant that Villa can now win the second ball far more easily in advanced positions.

Watkins’ movement has also allowed for increased attacking efficiency. Instead of providing a singular route out of the back, Watkins often drops deep or pulls into the wide areas in order to collect the ball. This is crucial, as again, it allows Villa to retain the ball more consistently, as opposed to giving the ball away in a congested area of the pitch.

Here you can see Watkins dropping in to receive the ball in space, something that Villa strikers did very little of last season. Although most of Watkins’ touches come from more advanced positions, it’s clear that he’s a mobile striker, who can float in and around that attacking area as opposed to remaining static.

Their other form of progression has come from Jack Grealish. Obviously, when you have a weapon like Grealish at your disposal, you’re going to want to take full advantage of it.

Grealish is currently averaging the most key passes per match in the Premier League, as well as the 3rd most dribbles. His dribbling and passing abilities even in deep positions make him an incredible progressor of the ball.

In the image above, Grealish turned this situation with his back to goal into this:

After exchanging a couple of quick passes with Bertrand Traore, Grealish was in behind the Manchester United midfield and had room to break into. The point of this is to show that Grealish’s individual quality has played a crucial role in Villa’s ability to break out of defence.

When Villa haven’t wanted to go long, they’ve been able to hand possession over to Grealish, whether he’s been on the left-wing or operating as an attacking midfielder.

Villa aren’t only direct when playing on the break, however. When they do get into advanced positions, they don’t waste their time. Dean Smith’s men currently average the 3rd most crosses per match in the league as well as the 3rd most accurate crosses. This is all despite their relative lack of possession.

When they get into forward areas, they tend to move quickly and look to get the ball into the box. It seems that they’ve found that crosses have been the best way to do this. They’re almost always looking for a way to cross or an alternative route into the box.

Interestingly, however, it’s not the full-backs who have been the main source of their crosses. While this is the modern tactic, to push your full-backs high up in the wide areas and into crossing positions, Dean Smith has opted for a slightly different method. For the large part, Villa’s wingers act as the wide threat. They’re forced to maintain their wide position until late on in the attack.

During the development of attacks, Villa’s wingers hug the touchline when going forwards, spreading the field on both sides. In the instance above, El Ghazi maintains his wide position, even when Grealish is coming across. This helped to create an overload on the flank. Instead of making a darting run inside, El Ghazi was able to combine with Grealish and play him down the line.

Villa play like this for a number of reasons. The main one, and perhaps the most obvious, is that they are constantly trying to stretch the pitch, which is apparent in the image above. It also has a lot to do with their style of play. Given that the majority of their attacks come on the break, their full-backs don’t have the time to dart forwards and assist on the attack. This means that their wingers need to stay wide if they want to maintain the team’s wide presence.

Given their high crossing rate, this is clearly something that Dean Smith values. Each of Villa’s three players who have been operating most frequently as wingers this campaign (Traore, El Ghazi, and Grealish) have averaged more attempted crosses per game than both of Villa’s full-backs. Again, this isn’t due to ability but rather the positions that the Villa wingers get themselves into.

This isn’t to say that Villa’s full-backs don’t contribute on the attack. In the image above you can see a situation in which Targett is flying forwards from his left-back role in order to aid Grealish. While Villa’s full-backs do play rather conservatively, they hover in behind the Villa wingers and occasionally make that overlapping run.

In a way, this makes them more effective. As opposed to one of the big sides like Liverpool or Tottenham who keep their full-backs high and wide from the off, Villa’s full-backs make late runs into attacking areas. This means they are often unmarked. Although it makes them less of a consistent threat, the opposition aren’t always ready for them when they do burst forwards.

Another interesting thing to notice in terms of Aston Villa’s crossing strategy is the way in which they load the box. This season, Villa have done extraordinarily well to get numbers forward quickly in order to pose a threat.

While the image above doesn’t show the best instance of this, it does highlight a crucial part of Aston Villa’s tactic. This is the late back-post run made by Anwar El Ghazi. Although the wingers tend to hold their wide position, when the winger or full-back is about to cross from the opposite side, they’ll dart towards the back-post. This is where the ball is typically aimed.

Both El Ghazi and Traore have been brilliant this season at drifting towards that far-post area. El Ghazi has scored 5 goals so far this season from 5 starts, and this can largely be attributed to his finishes off of crosses. While Watkins is constantly in and around the area looking to get a shot off, one of Aston’s Villa’s wingers will arrive late in the box.

Other times it will be McGinn or one of the other midfielders who will make this late run. The point is that Villa have been superb at getting numbers forward this season. Whether this be on the break, or when controlling the possession in their opponent’s half, their attacking style has been direct and purposeful, which has meant that they’ve been one of the most effective offensive sides in the league.

Maintaining Defensive Security

Despite this attacking approach, that requires pushing many men forward into the attack, Villa have remained defensively solid. Dean Smith has managed to find both attacking and defensive efficiency.

Much of this has to do with their conservative full-backs. This helps to restore a balance to the side when the rest of the team are pushing so far forwards. In Smith’s system, the full-backs act almost as a shield. When Villa do maintain possession in the opposition half, their full-backs operate similarly to Manchester City’s full-backs under Guardiola.

They pinch in slightly in order to close down the space in midfield. They come particularly centrally when the ball is on the opposite side of the pitch. When the ball is on their side of the pitch, they sit behind the winger, providing them with an out-ball but not typically pushing beyond them.

This can be seen clearly in the image above. Target is providing Grealish with support on the left side. Cash is pinched into the center. This way, the full-backs can support the players ahead of them, however, they are crucially positioned in a way that can help their side win the ball back immediately.

This helps to prevent teams from breaking quickly. By filling this midfield zone more thoroughly, Villa can stall their opponents before settling back into their typical defensive shape.

Their two central midfield players play a role in this as well. Although McGinn and Luiz are both dynamic midfield players, they have been handed rather defensive roles in this system. They, like the full-backs, have to remain conservative for the most part while their side is on the attack.

While McGinn has been given a slightly freer role, Luiz has anchored the Villa midfield this season. While both players remain largely disciplined in their midfield positioning, McGinn operates almost in line with the Villa full-backs. He’s the one who is required to make those late runs into the box as we saw earlier.

He’s also given more freedom when it comes to moving side to side. His defensive role, however, is crucial. As you can see in the image above, he creates a wall alongside the full-backs. When Villa lose the ball, these three players act almost as a pressing shield, slowing down the opposition attack.

Again, this gives Villa time to get back behind the ball. This is where they operate for most of the game. I’ve already mentioned their relatively low possession levels. This makes their defensive shape even more important.

When Villa defend, they do so in a 4-4-1-1. The wingers drop back, while the attacking midfielder maintains their relatively advanced position. Despite not keeping much possession, Villa actually employ a high press. This is counterintuitive. This style of play usually leads to winning the ball back quickly and retaining possession. However, this suggests that it’s their offensive style that is accountable for their inability to hold onto the ball.

All of this was on show in the match shown above, against Manchester United. Despite ultimately losing this match, Villa showed great defensive tenacity against one of the better sides in the league. Their high line and pressing intensity were crucial in this. They didn’t often let United get into dangerous areas, however, when they did, Villa were compact defensively.

When defending in this instance, notice how crowded the box is. Villa have seven outfield players back, and you can see how compact the team is from side-to-side. This indicates the work rate from the players to get back into position quickly off of the United break, with the wingers helping out as well. Villa’s defensive success has been based on this tremendous work rate from their players along with a high degree of organization, settling into their positions incredibly quickly.

Summary

Villa have caught the eye this season with their fast-paced, entertaining style of play, recording some memorable results along the way. At just about the halfway point of the season, Villa look positioned to comfortably challenge for Europe. At this stage, their relegation worries are far behind them.

In truth, this has to be one of the Premier League’s biggest surprise stories over the past few years. Not only are they thriving in terms of results, but their numbers are backing up the performances that they are putting out. This suggests that what they are doing has been completely deserved, and Dean Smith deserves immense credit for turning his team around.

Citations

Whoscored.Com, 2020, https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/7811/Stages/17590/TeamStatistics/England-Premier-League-2019-2020. Accessed 10 June 2020.

"EPL Xg Table And Scorers For The 2019/2020 Season | Understat.Com". Understat.Com, 2020, https://understat.com/league/EPL. Accessed 10 June 2020.

"Statsbomb | Football Like Never Before". Statsbomb, 2020, https://statsbomb.com/. Accessed 10 June 2020.

"Football - The Stats Zone". Thestatszone.Com, 2020, https://www.thestatszone.com/football. Accessed 10 June 2020.

Page, FB, and 2019-2020 Stats. "Premier League Stats | Fbref.Com". Fbref.Com, 2020, https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats. Accessed 10 June 2020.

"Football Slices". Organizedchaos.Herokuapp.Com, 2020, http://organizedchaos.herokuapp.com/. Accessed 10 June 2020.

"Dean Smith Thinks Jack Grealish Could Play For Aston Villa V Liverpool – HITC". HITC, 2019, https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2019/10/31/dean-smith-thinks-jack-grealish-could-play-for-aston-villa-v-liv/. Accessed 17 Jan 2021.

"Aston Villa Reveal ‘UK£6M A Year’ Cazoo Shirt Sponsorship". Sportspromedia.Com, 2021, https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/aston-villa-shirt-sponsor-cazoo. Accessed 18 Jan 2021.

Preece, Ashley. "Dean Smith Gives Bertrand Traore Lowdown & Details Villa Message". Birminghamlive, 2020, https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bertrand-traore-aston-villa-southampton-19196329. Accessed 18 Jan 2021.

Bryce, Graeme. "Aston Villa Brought Down To Earth By Bournemouth As Jack Grealish Becomes First Player To Lose 20 Consecutive Prem Games". The Sun, 2019, https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/premierleague/9742972/villa-0-bournemouth-2-king-wilson-luiz-grealish/. Accessed 19 Jan 2021.

"Aston Villa Opens With 1-0 Win After Martinez Penalty Save". San Diego Union-Tribune, 2020, https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/national/story/2020-09-21/aston-villa-opens-with-1-0-win-after-martinez-penalty-save. Accessed 19 Jan 2021.

News, Aston. "Aston Villa New Boy Matty Cash Is Proving To Be An Incredible Signing". Footballfancast.Com, 2020, https://www.footballfancast.com/aston-villa-news/aston-villa-matty-cash-ollie-watkins-leicester-dean-smith-johan-lange-transfer-news-premier-league-match-reaction. Accessed 19 Jan 2021.

"GW3 Differentials: Ollie Watkins". Premierleague.Com, 2021, https://www.premierleague.com/news/1839258. Accessed 20 Jan 2021.

"Watkins Warns Of 'Another Level' To Spellbinding Aston Villa Form". Teamtalk.Com, 2020, https://www.teamtalk.com/news/ollie-watkins-warns-another-level-aston-villa-form. Accessed 20 Jan 2021.

"Grealish And Watkins Impress: What The FPL Experts Have Learned". Premierleague.Com, 2021, https://www.premierleague.com/news/1859213. Accessed 20 Jan 2021.

heffernan, brian. "Liverpool: These Fans Show No Interest In Signing Jack Grealish". Thisisfutbol.Com, 2020, https://thisisfutbol.com/2020/01/blogs/premier-league/liverpool-these-fans-are-no-longer-interested-in-signing-jack-grealish/. Accessed 21 Jan 2021.

"Jack Grealish Scores A Superb Solo Goal As Manchester United Drop Points Yet Again - Essentiallysports". Essentiallysports, 2019, https://www.essentiallysports.com/jack-grealish-scores-a-superb-solo-goal-as-manchester-united-drop-points-yet-again/. Accessed 22 Jan 2021.

"Tyrone Mings Says Black FA Chairman Would Be 'Huge Step'". Besoccer, 2020, https://www.besoccer.com/new/tyrone-mings-says-black-fa-chairman-would-be-huge-step-913522. Accessed 26 Jan 2021.

Evans, Gregg. "Aston Villa - Fit, Fresh And Now A Team To Be Feared". The Athletic, 2021, https://theathletic.com/2285304/2020/12/27/aston-villa-dean-smith-anwar-el-ghazi/. Accessed 26 Jan 2021.