Champions at Last
After Manchester City dropped points to Chelsea last Thursday, Liverpool have been crowned champions of the Premier League after a tormentful 30-year wait.
Now, the Reds are set to face the team that handed them the Premier League title: Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
Over the past few years, these two sides have built up a tremendous rivalry. The quality that both Pep Guardiola and Klopp have brought to their teams has been remarkable.
Of course, these teams were involved in a historic title race last campaign, which ended in City clinching the Premier League crown by just one point. This time around, however, Klopp and his Liverpool side have been one step above the rest, and are now champions of England.
In truth, Liverpool have been many steps above the rest this season. By claiming the title with seven matches to go, they have become the earliest side to ever win the league. The points record is also still at play, as they could finish the season with 106 points if they win each of their remaining matches.
Although there is no longer a title to fight for, you would still expect a high-quality contest here. We’ve witnessed some thrilling encounters between these sides in recent seasons. The constant quality that both Guardiola and Klopp consistently demand from their players means that there will be no room for error in this upcoming game.
Both managers have revolutionized the English game. The high-intensity, counter-pressing football that they prefer their sides to play has increased the quality and the tempo of the league and should lead to a fascinating and high-paced match. This is a matchup between two of the best sides, and two of the best managers, that this league has ever seen.
City In Possession
In this match, and in most matches in which City are present, Pep Guardiola’s side will expect to maintain more of the ball. This is a hallmark of any Guardiola side. City have the highest average possession in the league this season on 62%, and although Liverpool rank second in this regard, you’d expect the Reds to be happy to cede the majority of possession.
When in possession, City tend to line up in a typical 4-3-3. They could also choose to operate with a 4-2-3-1, which Pep has experimented with this season. While it’s nearly impossible to predict how Pep will set out his side for this game, here’s my best guess on how they’ll lineup:
After City’s last match against Chelsea, there are several things that they’re going to want to avoid. In that match, Guardiola employed Bernardo Silva as a false nine, with no real striker in the starting squad. Bernardo and De Bruyne rotated positions throughout the match playing ahead of Rodri and Gundogan.
City played with rotating false nines. As Bernardo Silva comes deep to get the ball off the throw-in, De Bruyne is pushing up into the false nine position. City employed a similar tactical system when they played Manchester United in the Carabao Cup. It was incredibly effective the first time around; however, in this most recent fixture, they suffered because of it.
Against Manchester United, City were given opportunities to counter, in which they were able to use their free-flowing football to good effect. Chelsea were more compact defensively, however, and were able to close down the midfield. Bernardo Silva was barely involved in the play, taking just 31 touches on the night, the lowest of any City starter.
Without an actual striker, City lacked penetration, and Bernardo wasn’t good enough took make up for that lost output. Although Liverpool will generally afford City more chances to counter, you would think that Pep would use a more conventional striker in this upcoming game.
Bernardo Silva could still start on the left, however, still operating in a sort of free role. It will be interesting to see if Pep goes with Sterling or Bernardo in this position, as both players offer completely different things.
Bernardo is a better technical player in many ways, but Sterling is explosive on the wing and offers more of a goal threat. If Pep does opt to play Jesus as the main striker, Bernardo Silva would be the most logical choice to play off on the left. Bernardo will be able to come centrally and interact with De Bruyne, while Jesus will provide the burst of energy and penetration that City need up top.
City could look to cause problems out on the left-hand side. Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold is nowhere near as good a one-on-one defender as Andrew Robertson on the other side, and Manchester City could look to take advantage of this.
Before the lockdown, Manchester City beat Everton 2-1, with Jesus scoring two as the lone striker. In this game, it was Foden who played on the left. Foden is similar to Bernardo when playing in this position in that he was constantly looking to come infield to get involved in build-up play.
This allowed Jesus to drift out to the left. He scored both his goals on the night by exploiting the space in between the right-back and the center-back. It makes sense for him to play a similar role in this upcoming game, attempting to capitalize on Alexander-Arnold’s defensive deficiencies.
The image above is from Jesus’s second goal of the game. Foden had come centrally to combine with Mahrez, leaving Coleman with no one to mark. Jesus made a run from the center of the pitch to the left, and the pass was slipped in between Mina and Coleman of Everton.
Manchester City certainly won’t have as much central space in this upcoming game. Liverpool generally keep a compact midfield, and could only really be exposed in this sort of situation when being countered. If Manchester City are going to find a way through it will likely have to be from the wide areas.
If City can stretch the play with the likes of Mahrez and Bernardo Silva staying wide on the touchline, then they’ll be able to create more space in the middle of the park. What City do so well under Pep Guardiola is getting multiple players into dangerous positions. At any point in the game City could have three or four players in and around the box ready to be hit by a low cross.
It’s unlikely that City will be able to play through the middle of Liverpool but if they can utilize the wide areas effectively, they could be dangerous. This way they can bypass the workman-like midfield of Liverpool and attempt to test their backline more directly.
This is an image from the earlier match between the sides this season. City were able to lay the ball off to Angelino and they had four options inside the box with two hanging just outside the penalty area.
Bernardo Silva eventually scored at the back post, after the cross evaded the Liverpool defenders who were already marked up. By overloading the box and getting the ball wide, City were able to cause confusion for Liverpool and score their only goal of the match. If they can look to do this more frequently here, they might be able to secure a better result (having lost 3-1 previously).
The Liverpool Press
In truth, neither side is likely to keep the ball for extended periods. Although City will probably maintain the majority of possession, this will be broken up into smaller intervals. Also, much of this sustained possession will come from within their own half which isn’t something they’re used to.
One of the main reasons that City have struggled so thoroughly against Liverpool over the past few years is the relentless press that Klopp sides play with. Guardiola has built his system around playing against sides who employ deeper defences. The dominance that he has displayed with his Manchester City side over the past few seasons means that his team generally invites a more defensive approach from their opposition.
Liverpool, however, at least under their current manager, are never a team to shy away from the task at hand. When they’ve faced City in the past, Guardiola’s side have struggled to build out from the back. You’d expect the same to be true in this upcoming game.
When City build from defence, typically Rodri will drop slightly deeper to get involved in play along with one of City’s other midfield players. Usually, De Bruyne will stay slightly higher up the field and might even briefly swap positions with the striker.
The key to Liverpool’s press, especially in this match, will be Firmino’s role as the central striker. Firmino is crucial to Liverpool’s press and is arguably the best pressing forward in the Premier League. His role in Liverpool’s pressing system is to cut out the passing route to the defensive midfielder, while also closing the space of the opposing central defender.
Here, Firmino’s main job is to stop Rodri from getting the ball. As the ball shifts from left to right, Firmino makes sure that he stays in between Rodri and the player in possession. This is crucial, as it stops the opposition from being able to play a simple short pass, and forces them to play a more difficult ball upfield.
If the center-back takes too long on the ball, Firmino and one of the wingers will slowly push inwards and try to force a tackle. Again, this is is vital as it disrupts City’s brilliant short-passing game and forces them to go outside their comfort zone. Guardiola’s side aren’t used to be pressed so intensely, so they often make silly errors when trying to play around the back.
As you can see in the image above, Gundogan is also coming deep to help Rodri and offer a short-passing option. When Liverpool press, however, one of their midfield players will often step up and join their front-line. In most cases this is Henderson.
Here you can see that Henderson is stepping forward onto City left-back Angelino. This allows Salah to shift to the side and cover Gundogan. Firmino remains tight on Rodri, blocking that passing option, while Mane tightens the field horizontally.
In other scenarios, Henderson will step in between Firmino and Salah. While Liverpool’s front three keep a rather rigid structure when pressing, Henderson is required to read the situation in front of him and fill in gaps where required. Wijnaldum will also do this on the left-hand side occasionally, but more often than not it’s Henderson with this added responsibility.
Liverpool are adept at limiting space for their opposition through their press. While the wingers close the field horizontally, the midfielders and even the backline will step forward to limit the space vertically.
Usually, Manchester City are allowed to sit in their opponents half comfortably for most of the game. From there, they can attempt different passing sequences knowing that they should be able to recycle the play should they lose the ball. Against Liverpool, however, they run the risk of losing the ball in a dangerous area when creating these passing moves, while their opponents can break quickly once winning the ball from the press.
Liverpool In Transition
Liverpool’s incredibly quick transition from defence to offence has been crucial in their recent victories over City. While their high-pressing nature has disturbed the Citizens, it’s their counter-attacking prowess which has made them so deadly.
Back in the 2017/18 Premier League season, Liverpool were renowned for their quick counter-attacking play. Despite finishing 25 points behind Manchester City, they beat Guardiola’s side 4-3 in their home league fixture that year. Their high-press combined with the lightning-quick thinking of their front-three meant that they were able to topple one of the greatest Premier League sides of all time.
Even when these sides last met in November, Liverpool were flawless on the break. Their first two goals in that match were perfect examples of what they are capable of when countering.
When City have possession in their opponents half, they take on a rather interesting shape. Guardiola has devised a system that seems to attempt to limit their opponent’s threat on the counter.
In many modern sides, the wingers will cut inside as they progress play in order to leave space for an overlapping full-back. In Pep’s system, however, the wingers provide the width while the full-backs remain narrow for the most part.
You can see here that right-back Kyle Walker is tucking in almost as another central-midfielder. While Angelino is pulling out wide, one full-back typically remains central to cover. If City are attacking down the left, then their left-back will provide width or make an overlapping run, while the right-back pinches in towards their defensive midfielder. This is vice versa on the other side.
If City are further down the field, then sometimes both full-backs will come centrally to create a W-shape defensively. City’s midfield players are typically very attacking, so this is a way for Guardiola’s side to prevent counter-attacks and keep enough numbers back in midfield.
Because of this, the key to Liverpool’s counter is the speed in which they get players wide. They have to try and stretch Manchester City’s counter-pressing formation and draw their full-backs out into making a challenge. This is what started two of their goals in their last meeting with the Cityzens.
In the instance above, from which Liverpool went onto score their first goal, you can see how the Reds exploited City’s formation. Walker stepped out of his central position to press Robertson, in turn leaving space in behind for a player like Firmino.
What’s crucial here though, is that Walker still left space for Robertson to play down the line. Mane isn’t shown in the image, but he is lurking on the left-wing, after quickly adjusting once Liverpool won the ball back.
Because Walker is caught out of position, Mane is able to run free for 20 yards or so without any opposition interference. City center-back John Stones is forced to come wide to cover, but by that stage Mane is nearing the opposition penalty area.
Essentially, Mane can go from well-inside his own half all the way to the opposition box, simply because Robertson drew one player out of position. This highlights the fragility of the City counter-press, especially when you have pacey and intelligent players such a Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah on the wings.
Mane got wide, which allowed him to shift the City defence once he got the ball. Liverpool were able to create a three on four going forwards in a matter of seconds and scored as a result. Mane dragged a cross across the six-yard box after getting into the penalty area, and Fabinho latched onto a poor clearance.
Despite attempting to keep a compact defensive shape after losing the ball, Guardiola’s extreme counter-pressing demands mean that they can often be caught out. This quick Liverpool counter-attack proved how unorganized City can be at the back as well.
Guardiola’s side are wonderful when going forwards but they haven’t yet mastered the art of stopping a counter. In many scenarios, his side seem almost lackadaisical when going backwards, no doubt due to the intense work that his side do further up the pitch.
Liverpool haven’t been the only side to catch them out this season either. Most sides in the Premier League have discovered City’s weaknesses when going backwards. Because of this, City sit 23 points behind Liverpool, despite being one of the best sides in world football.
Summary & Prediction
Manchester City have been great this season even with this huge gap in points. However, Liverpool seem the perfect side to disrupt Guardiola’s men. This has been the case for the past few seasons and it seems to have remained the same.
The energetic pressing and quick counter-attacking that Klopp can employ against such a possession-dominant side means that his side are always going to be on the front foot. Although he has dialled back his system in order for his side to be more consistent against smaller opponents, the roots of his style come from this gegenpressing philosophy.
High-intensity, fast-flowing football suits his side perfectly. Guardiola’s City are certainly a tough match for him this regard, but for Thursday’s match I predict a 2-1 Liverpool away win.
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