Derby Decider
With the Premier League resuming this week, Liverpool have the chance to win the title at the ground of perhaps their fiercest rivals.
On Sunday Liverpool will make the 1.4 kilometer drive to Goodison Park, where they’ll meet Everton on the resumption of the season. However, along with the usual pressures that a derby brings along, Liverpool could also be fighting for their first ever Premier League title, and a place in English football history.
If Arsenal beat Manchester City on Wednesday, a win could grant Liverpool the title with eight matches still to play. They’ve had one of the best seasons in Premier League history, but could their local rivals delay what seems to be an inevitable Premier League trophy.
Under Carlo Ancelotti, the Toffees have actually been much improved. Everton were 15th when the Italian took charge, but they now sit in 12th. In fact, if the season was only measured from the time that Ancelotti took over, Everton would be in 7th, ahead of the likes of both Arsenal and Tottenham.
Expected goals indicates that Everton have shown large progress both offensively and defensively. They’ve been particularly impressive on the attacking end of things. Under Marco Silva, Everton were averaging just 1.35 expected goals per 90, but now, this has been raised to 1.89 every match. Everton rank 3rd in the league for expected goals since December 21st, the day Ancelotti took charge.
In many ways, he’s turned the team into a more pragmatic force, focused on getting the ball into the forward players quickly, but maintaining a compact defensive unit. However, this is by no means a bad thing, especially with the players that Ancelotti has at his disposal. He seems to have figured out how to get the best out of the players that he has available to him.
Nowadays it’s quite rare to see a team employ a 4-4-2 on a regular basis, but Ancelotti has come up with a variation on the system that has proven to be effective. Many of the players within his squad carry a large physical presence, and he has seemingly based his tactical gameplan around this strength.
When out of possession Everton stay compact particularly in midfield, and defend with two blocks of four in a typical 4-4-2. When they have the ball, however, this shifts to a 3-5-2, which allows Luca Digne to get forwards and cause havoc down the left-hand side.
Above is a picture of Everton in possession, with a midfield three and two wide midfielders flanking the sides. In most cases, it’s been Seamus Coleman who drops from right-back in order to form a back three. This formation allows Everton to get their wing-backs high up the pitch, which leads to high quality service for the two target men in the middle.
In many ways, this Everton side are well set up to deal with Liverpool’s way of play. Offensively they are physical and direct, but when going backwards they are compact, and defend the wide areas well. The 4-4-2 will always be an effective defensive shape, as it covers most areas of the field, but Ancelotti has figured out a way to make his side more threatening when on the attack.
Everton In Possession
Although much of Everton’s play will be focused on defending the threat that Liverpool pose, they themselves could be dangerous on the break. Their front two of Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison were in superb form before the break, and they’ll be looking to exert their influence on this upcoming match.
Like mentioned earlier, Everton are quite direct when they get hold of possession. Both Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are incredibly physical players, and are easy to pick out from longer balls out of the back. Particularly when a team uses a high-press like Liverpool, Everton are more comfortable playing direct passes into their forwards.
Typically Richarlison will drop slightly deeper than Calvert-Lewin, either to receive the ball on the ground, or to pick up the pieces when a longer ball is sent to his strike partner. Calvert-Lewin acts as the main “target-man”, challenging the opposing defenders aerially. Most of Everton’s attacks start with a longer pass towards Calvert-Lewin from which they look to build.
In the situation shown above, Calvert-Lewin is receiving a long-ball from Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford. Richarlison stands off of him, but is ready to receive any knock-down. This is what has allowed Everton to counter so quickly and efficiently under Ancelotti’s reign.
They get players forward extremely quickly, while Calvert-Lewin’s aerial dominance allows for Everton to get the ball from back to front in a matter of seconds. As can be seen, Richarlison isn’t the only player around Calvert-Lewin. When a long-ball is played from Everton’s center-backs or goalkeeper, they make sure that they have a few men surrounding the ball when possible. If Richarlison were to get the ball under control in the picture above, Everton would have a four on four going forwards.
Liverpool could find this particularly difficult to deal with. The Reds often commit a number of men forwards, and are most vulnerable when being countered quickly. We saw this when they played Watford a few weeks before the season was broken up.
Troy Deeney was effective as a target-man, with Deulofeu and Sarr running off of him. If Everton can attempt to replicate this, they could have a chance in the match.
Given how far up Liverpool commit their full-backs, Everton could frequently create two-on-two situations. With Richrlison running off of Calvert-Lewin, Everton will need to look to spring quick counter-attacks, using Calvert-Lewin’s physical presence to help them maintain possession further up the field. Richarlison has been less of a goalscorer this season, but his ability to both set up chances and progress the ball on the break could be incredibly useful here.
Everton obviously aren’t going to dominate possession in this match, so they need to be effective when they have the ball. Playing quick and direct can often force mistakes out of defenders. Although Liverpool’s center back pairing is nearly flawless, the physical presence of both Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison could be enough to grant Everton a goal.
Everton Defensively
None of this matters, however, if Everton aren’t able to successfully shut down the Liverpool attack. I’ve already briefly mentioned Everton’s defensive shape, and how they’ve improved significantly under Ancelotti.
They employ a 4-4-2 when defending, in order to limit their opposition’s space. In midfield, they remain particularly compact, with the wide midfielders tucking inside and coming close to the central players. This means that there are less gaps between their midfield players, while they’re also able to have at least three central players at all times.
When they shift to the right, the right-midfielder will step out to defend, and vice versa on the left. Interestingly, Richarlison often drops slightly deeper as well, almost as a number ten, in order to close down an opposing defensive midfielder.
Occasionally, Sidibe at right midfield will drop back into a back five even when Everton are out of possession. This makes it even more vital that Richarlison plays a slightly more defensive role. When Sidibe drops back, or Sigurdsson shifts out to the right, Richarlison has the ability to step back and cover. This makes it more difficult for opposing teams to keep possession in midfield.
Essentially, Everton try to fill out their midfield in whatever way possible. When going up against sides that play with three or even four in midfield, a 4-4-2 can oftentimes be overwhelmed in the middle of the park. Although Everton start with a solid midfield block of four, they have the ability to adjust this shape depending on the position of the opposing team.
In the image above, Sidibe is dropping back to assist Coleman, while also keeping track of attacking full-back Benjamin Mendy. When this happens, Richarlison is forced to shift backwards as well, in order to keep tabs on the City midfielder. By doing this Everton are shifting from a 4-4-2 to a 5-4-1 while defending. Both formations could be effective when defending against Liverpool.
Liverpool’s main attacking threat comes from their full-backs. Liverpool’s full-back pairing have a combined 19 assists in the Premier League this season, accounting for around 36% of their total. If you can shut down Alexander-Arnold and Robertson, Liverpool will have a tough time creating high-quality chances.
Whatever way you look at it, Everton are well set up to defend the wide areas. The 4-4-2 is one of the most defensively secure formations horizontally, as it allows for two players defending on either wing.
As you can see, Everton double up in the wide areas, with the full-back and the wide midfielder both providing cover. Along with this, a central midfielder and sometimes a striker will come wide to help close down the ball.
Particularly in Sidibe’s case, Everton have a top quality defensive player playing on the wing. In the Premier League this season Sidibe has been averaging 6.4 tackles and interceptions per 90, elite numbers for a player of any position. This is comfortably top of the Everton squad, while his 4.3 tackles per 90 ranks 3rd in the Premier League amongst players with more than 1000 minutes. His defensive ability has been key under Ancelotti, as he has provided the Italian with a flexible midfield/full-back option who can interchange positions throughout the match.
Sidibe will be particularly crucial in this upcoming fixture, given how high Liverpool’s full-back’s commit themselves. On the left side of the pitch, Everton might not be as solid. Digne is a top quality full-back but in front of him Everton tend to employ a more creative presence. If Alexander-Arnold has a good game for Liverpool at right-back, he could find a way past Everton’s defensive formation.
Liverpool’s Way Through
Like I’ve already mentioned, Everton are well set up both offensively and defensively in order to deal with this Liverpool side. They play quick counter-attacking football with physical players going forwards, while also managing to remain compact at the back. Crucially, they are well set in the wide areas.
However, there are still gaps within this Everton squad. When the Toffees faced Manchester City a few weeks before the break in the season, they were beaten 2-1. Despite keeping a narrow midfield, Everton were exposed in the middle of the park. In this game it was clear that there was space to exploit in between Everton’s two blocks of four. This led to City’s crucial second goal.
In this situation, which led to the second City goal, both Foden and Mahrez find themselves free in between the two Everton blocks of four. Sigurdsson is attempting to track back but at that stage it’s too late. Mahrez is able to collect the ball and lay it on to Gabriel Jesus on the left to score.
If Liverpool can look to use this space, they may be able to find a way past Everton’s compact defensive shape. For this reason, Roberto Firmino could be crucial in Liverpool’s success in this upcoming match.
The Brazilian number nine loves to operate in these sorts of tight spaces, coming deeper to collect the ball. If he drops deeper and plays as a sort of number ten in this game, he could exploit Everton’s midfield weakness and prove to be the difference for Liverpool offensively.
If you watch Liverpool even semi-frequently then you’re well aware that Firmino is no ordinary striker. While he does score goals, he’s not his side's prime goalscorer. Firmino acts as the link between midfield and attack in Klopp’s system. In some cases, it’s like he’s playing at the tip of a midfield diamond, with Salah and Mane operating just ahead of him.
By dropping deeper into half-spaces, Firmino opens up space for Liverpool’s wingers, who play almost as strikers at times. This could end up being perfect against Everton. If Firmino can consistently find space in between the lines, he’ll give Liverpool a route into more advanced positions, and he can help them progress the ball past the Everton midfield.
While Liverpool’s full-back’s might not carry the same threat as they usually do, Firmino can take on some of their creative responsibilities. Firmino has laid on 7 assists in the league this season and is certainly a competent creative player. If he’s afforded space in dangerous areas, in between the midfield and defensive lines, then he can turn provider for the likes of Salah and Mane.
Everton have the potential to disrupt Liverpool and cause an upset here. There are many aspects of their play that lend themselves well to playing against Klopp’s system.
However, they are far from favourites in this match. The quality and consistency that Liverpool have displayed this season is almost unrivalled in all of Premier League history. Although the Toffees have stepped up their game under Carlo Ancelotti there are still gaps in their tactical system. Their midfield is far from secure, and Klopp will be looking to overwhelm Everton in that area.
Overall, Everton probably aren’t ready to cope with the quality of Liverpool. The soon-to-be Premier League champions will be challenged, but without the typical derby atmosphere to spur Everton on, I think a Liverpool win is inevitable. My final prediction for Sunday’s match is a 2-1 Liverpool victory.
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