GW 3: Liverpool vs. Arsenal Tactical Preview

GW 3: Liverpool vs. Arsenal Tactical Preview

Liverpool and Arsenal are two of just five teams to have gained the full six points from the opening two Premier League gameweeks, with their clash at Anfield coming up shortly. Both sides have started the Premier League campaign strongly, but who has the upper hand going into this tactical battle?

Arteta’s long-term vision has seemingly begun to pan out at Arsenal, with his side performing well over their first two matches. Similarly, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have exploded onto the scene, and it looks like his side could be ready to continue on from last season’s successes.

Although it’s incredibly early, the signs will be positive for both managers. At the moment it looks as if they are playing in the ways they intend to, and they’ve got the early results to show for that.

Predicted Lineups

First of all, let's look at how each team could line up coming into this crucial fixture.

Liverpool are likely to go with their favoured 4-3-3, however, there are more complications when it comes to individual personnel. Although the backline should largely be as expected, Fabinho could also slot into the back four.

Against Chelsea last Sunday the Brazilian played excellently as a center-back. Both Gomez and Matip were struggling with injury though, and with Gomez back fit he could be the man to play next to van Dijk. However, if Fabinho were to drop deeper a space would be opened up in the team for new addition Thiago.

The Spaniard got a somewhat surprising 45 minutes off of the bench last weekend and put in an impressive display. If he were to play from the off, that would obviously shift the dynamic in Liverpool’s midfield. While the midfield players around him would most likely stay the same, Thiago offers something entirely different to Fabinho as a defensive midfielder.

In terms of how Arsenal could line up, you’d expect them to go with a 3-4-3. This is the formation that Arteta has seemingly settled on at the beginning of this season. It’s also the formation that Arsenal used to navigate a win against Liverpool in the Community Shield, which was played just a few weeks back.

In that match, Arsenal adopted the same 3-4-3 shape, but with different personnel than what I have suggested could happen here. First of all, I think one of the biggest changes will come in midfield. While Elneny played well in the Community Shield match, Ceballos seems ready to slot into that midfield position alongside Granit Xhaka. Elneny’s defensive prowess perhaps offers more cover, but given Arteta’s possession-based system with an emphasis on progressing the ball through the middle, Ceballos seems like a must.

There should also be some changes based on new signings that have come in since that last match. Willian and Gabriel are both expected to start this game, as they have done over the first two Premier League fixtures. This should mean Saka dropping to left-wingback, which is possibly his best position in Arteta’s system.

In terms of how Arsenal could set up tactically, there is also slightly more room for diversity. At this stage, Klopp’s Liverpool have a relatively well-known playing style. In their 4-3-3, they employ an incredibly high press that starts in midfield, while going forwards they operate with inverted wingers and offensive full-backs.

Arsenal, on the other hand, are a relatively new prospect in the Premier League, as Arteta hasn’t been in charge for long. As a young manager, you would expect Arteta to vary his formations in his first full season in the Premier League. But for the time being, he seems solely focused on developing his team’s 3-4-3.

This formation, however, is layered and complex, and his side have played differently in each match this season. For example, in both the Community Shield match and their Premier League opener against Fulham, Arteta employed Elneny in midfield as opposed to Ceballos. When using Ceballos in their most recent match, against West Ham, Arsenal were able to control possession much more comfortably, but struggled to create strong chances on the break.

While Ceballos is clearly a more attack-minded midfielder than Elneny, they struggled to find a free-flowing attacking gear when he was included. Arsenal eventually won the match but it wasn’t comfortable by any means. There were certainly positives though that came out of this West Ham match.

With Ceballos in the squad they were able to progress through the middle much more efficiently. Ceballos completed an impressive 93 passes against West Ham, 33 more than Elneny completed in the prior game. Arsenal also kept 62% possession as opposed to 54%, despite playing a more confident Premier League opponent.

With Ceballos in the squad, Arsenal were clearly a more confident team on the ball. They controlled possession better, and were able to use their midfield two to great effect. I think this is how Arteta wants to play long-term. Having worked under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, Arteta will no doubt be looking to play progressive football with plenty of focus on midfield dominance.

The signing of Ceballos shows this as well as Arteta’s preference towards players like Xhaka. While Torreira is a capable player, he’s been largely isolated from the Arsenal team, as he doesn’t necessarily have the progressive attributes that Arteta seems to be looking for. In this regard, Arteta has a big decision to make. Does he play with a more defensively capable central midfielder alongside Xhaka like he did for his side’s last match against the Reds, or does he stick with Ceballos after a strong performance against West Ham.

The pluses of playing a more defensive midfielder are clear to see. Arsenal conceded just 5 shots against Fulham, while they conceded 14 against West Ham. Even Liverpool were allowed just 15 shots when Elneny was playing. Someone whose main job is to guard the defence is very important, especially when playing with aggressive wingbacks.

There are a number of reasons why Ceballos should start in this match though. Elneny’s playing style might not suit these opponents. Given Liverpool’s incredibly high-press, it’s important to have a capable and press-resistant midfield.

We saw in the Reds’ last game against Chelsea that Lampard’s men were struggling with the intensity of Liverpool’s press. Chelsea’s defence were caught out a number of times, and Mane’s pressure led to Liverpool’s second goal. Something that stood out in particular was Chelsea’s inability to gain possession in meaningful areas or even in their opponents half at all. Liverpool boxed them in so well that they struggled to find attacking routes.

In this regard, it’s crucial to have midfield players who can assist in the transition but also alleviate pressure on the defenders. Progression through the middle has been crucial to Arteta, but you struggle to see Arsenal doing this effectively against Liverpool with Elneny in midfield.

Having Ceballos in midfield could also help to overturn Arsenal’s numerical disadvantage in the center. I’ve already mentioned how Liverpool operate with three in midfield, while Arsenal play with just two. Because of this, it’s crucial that both midfielders for Arsenal are comfortable on the ball.

In a midfield three, you can afford to have a ball-winning player, or someone who sits in front of the defence. This is much harder in a two. If you play like this you can be limited to one option in midfield who is capable of progressing the ball. This makes it incredibly easy for the opposition to cut down that players’ space and passing lanes.

Also, Ceballos is far from a poor defender. The Spaniard put in the most tackles and the most interceptions in Arsenal’s last game against West Ham crowning off a fantastic defensive performance. Last season both his tackles and interceptions were in the top 30% of Premier League midfielders, averaging a combined 3.7 tackles and interceptions per match.

Although both Xhaka and Ceballos are fairly aggressive defenders, who can leave their backline exposed, Arteta should be far more concerned about the damage that Liverpool can do with their press. For this reason it makes sense to go with a slightly more progressive midfield.

I’ve already mentioned Liverpool’s match against Chelsea, but this was a perfect example of what the Reds are capable of. Liverpool kept an incredible 61% of possession, while also limiting their opponents to just 5 shots on the night. This certainly wasn’t Liverpool’s finest creative performance, yet they penned the opposition back in a way that you rarely see.

This is how Klopp set up his press against Chelsea. It was largely the same as their typical pressing formation, but as always, there were little tweaks and adaptations that helped Liverpool gain the upper hand.

Chelsea are a team who, like Arsenal, try to play through their defence and progress down the middle. Liverpool cut this off very efficiently however. Salah and Mane played in their usual roles, coming centrally from their positions as wingers during the press. In this game, they took up positions in between the Chelsea center-backs and wingbacks.

This meant that they could mark the center-backs tightly, while also blocking off passing options to the wingbacks. Throughout the match, Chelsea keeper Arrizabalaga struggled to distribute wide to the wingbacks. This meant that Chelsea’s defensive players were for the most part forced to look for longer options, after being closed down quickly at the back.

Another big factor in this was Firmino’s defensive role. As I’ve shown in other tactical articles, Firmino defensive job in Liverpool’s system is to mark the opponent’s defensive-midfielder. Typically, he takes up a position in between the opposing central defenders and the deepest lying midfield player.

This allows Liverpool to take one of their opponents midfielders out of the game, at least while they are trying to progress into the middle third. Against a side like Chelsea, who are so reliant on that midfield progression, Liverpool found it relatively easy to contain them.

In most matches, Jorginho acts as the metronome for his side, controlling the tempo when Chelsea are in possession. Against Liverpool, however, Jorginho managed just 44 successful passes compared to his average of 73 from last season . He was largely shut down by the man-marking work of Roberto Firmino.

Liverpool also nullified the effect of Mateo Kovacic, which completed their pressing dominance. As in many systems, when your main midfielder is being picked up by an opposing player, another midfield player drops in to support. When Kovacic tried to support Jorginho though, he was picked up by one of Liverpool’s central-midfield players.

Liverpool’s right-sided midfielder is typically their more aggressive presser. So when Kovacic would drop deep on the left side of Chelsea’s midfield, he was easily picked up. Keita was energetic in the match, and allowed Kovacic very little room to maneuver. In fact, the Croatian completed just 1 dribble on the night.

Although Liverpool didn’t always win the ball back hgh up the pitch, they were able to create situations in which Chelsea were forced to go long or get the ball out of play. Essentially, Liverpool were able to man-mark Chelsea’s midfield three, and when one of them would drop deeper, they would simply be limiting the space in which they could operate.

In my opinion, this is why it’s incredibly important that Arsenal play with two progressive central midfielders. First of all, they already have the advantage formation-wise, as their midfield won’t be marked up as easily.

From this visual you can see that Arsenal’s setup is naturally more effective when going up against Liverpool’s 4-3-3. Their midfielders can no longer be paired up by Liverpool. If Liverpool’s two wider central midfielders commit forwards, they’ll leave space on the flanks for Arsenal to counter into.

In this situation Arsenal are able to create 2v1 scenarios in the wide areas, and a 5 on 5 overall at the back. If Liverpool commit their midfield players too far forwards, Arsenal are in a great position to break out from the back.

I think this was one of the main reasons that Liverpool struggled in the Community Shield fixture last month. Arsenal’s formation gave them opportunities to break free from Liverpool’s press. Once they were away from Liverpool’s first line of defence, they were well-positioned to counter quickly.

Their only goal in this game showed this. After they broke out of defence they found right-wingback Bellerin in the wide areas. He was able to play the ball past Andy Robertson and to Bukayo Saka on the wing. This created a 3 on 3 at the back which Arsenal went on to score from.

Liverpool’s midfield were taken out of the equation in this example, and their backline was left exposed. This happened a few times in this match, and it’s something that Liverpool need to combat going into this next game.

In this regard, it will be interesting to see if Klopp switches his formation slightly. He clearly won’t have been happy with this earlier performance, and he’s certainly been formulating ways to rectify the result. This could involve minor tweaks to the pressing system, or he could make a bigger move and switch to a 4-2-3-1/4-2-4.

This is something that Liverpool have experimented with slightly more over the past few months. It was used during pre-season, as well as a couple ofmatches from last season and in their most recent game against Lincoln in the Carabao Cup. They also have a number of players who can play in that center-forward role, just in behind the striker.

Takumi Minamino claimed man-of-the-match in their last game and looked effective playing as a striker, grabbing two goals and an assist. His strong form during pre-season and also in this game could lead to him starting in this upcoming match. His inclusion could also benefit Liverpool on a more general tactical basis.

If he were to play, it would likely be as an attacking midfielder or almost false-nine in behind Firmino. We’ve seen Klopp use the two of them as dual false-nines in the past, and that could work best here.

This would allow Liverpool to better control the midfield. As you can see in the graphic above, Liverpool are able to stay tighter on Arsenal’s two midfield players, while also leaving more men at the back.

Firmino plays his normal role, trying to cut out the passing option between defence and midfield. However, in this system he already has a player up to help him with the other midfield player. This means that Liverpool are already countering Arsenal’s formation. Instead of a central-midfielder coming forwards from a deeper position and leaving space in behind, they are already set up to deal with Arsenal’s double-pivot.

This allows Liverpool’s other two midfield players to position themselves more easily. They don’t have to adjust to Arsenal’s movements, and are already covering the deeper midfield areas.

This formation also allows Liverpool’s wingers to start wider. This could be important when going up against Arsenal’s three at the back. Instead of playing more narrowly when pressing, Salah and Mane can start wider, yet again taking up the position in between center-back and wingback like they did against Chelsea.

This will make it harder for Arsenal to find a route out of the back. The wide areas will be difficult to reach, as Liverpool’s wingers are blocking off the passing lanes into the wingbacks. Arsenal’s two midfielders will also be marked up, which means Arsenal could be penned in like Chelsea were.

By making this minor switch and playing with one player further up the field, Liverpool could look to completely flip the dynamic of the game. The last match between the two sides highlighted some of Liverpool’s deficiencies when going up against a capable side in transition. Liverpool need to amend this here if they want to continue their strong start to the season.

In this article I’ve tried to highlight the importance of the midfield battle in this game. Both sides have crucial midfield aspects that make them unique as Premier League teams.

For Arsenal, this is their desire to progress the ball through their two central midfield players. Arteta has clearly made this a priority, and his side play around the focus of getting the ball into these two players. For Liverpool, their incredibly high press stems from their midfield. This is why Klopp prefers such energetic work-men in the middle of the park.

If either side can suppress their opponents unique midfield attribute, they should have a strong advantage in the match. If Liverpool close down well and limit Arsenal’s space in midfield, they’ll be penned in like Chelsea were last week. But if Arsenal can progress through Liverpool’s midfield press, players like Aubameyang and Lacazette will be able to thrive on running at Liverpool’s backline. A backline which has been less than convincing as of late.

It will be interesting to see which manager navigates this game more successfully. Both sides have started the season with two wins but only one team can progress further here.

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