Wolves vs. Leicester
Leicester’s Overreliance on Ndidi
In what has been a rather frantic season for teams accustomed to finishing in the top 6, Wolves and Leicester have each continued their fantastic progress. With these teams set to face this weekend, let's look at how Leicester are over reliant on Wilfried Ndidi, and how Adama Traore has provided Nuno Espirio Santo with an escape route.
In what has been an outstanding season for Leicester, they currently sit within the top 4. For Wolves, they’ve found themselves quite far behind, but will still be gunning for a European spot over the back half of the campaign.
Both teams have looked off the mark though in recent games, and Leicester have been experiencing a particularly poor run of form.
The Foxes have now lost 4 of their last 8 in the Premier League, while they also crashed out of the EFL Cup in a loss to Aston Villa. Despite this, they have somehow upheld their spot in 3rd, with quite a commanding lead over their nearest rivals as well. Although it doesn’t necessarily look as if they’re going to be dropping down the league table, they need to improve on recent form if they are to maintain their position.
Quite frankly, they don’t deserve their place in the table. While Brendan Rodgers has done a brilliant job with his players, this Leicester side are far from being the 3rd best team in the Premier League. By expected goals, Leicester are the 5th best attacking team, and the 7th best defensive side in the division. Their tally of 41.79 expected points puts them in 5th place, behind the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea. This tally is also 7 points worse off than it is in real life, highlighting the good fortune that they’ve experienced this campaign.
In relation to Wolves, Leicester have been just marginally better.
Offensively, Wolves have been some ways off this Leicester side having scored 19 less goals than the Foxes. However; they have managed to sustain their defensive prominence that they demonstrated last campaign.
Although they have conceded 6 more than Leicester in the league, their underlying numbers paint a much different picture. Expected goals shows that Wolves should be more than 4 goals better off than their upcoming opponents when it comes to their defence. By this metric, Wolves have the 5th best defence in the Premier League at the moment; an impressive feat for a club of their stature. In fact, their defence has been marginally better this year than it was last campaign. While they’ve been conceding 1.11 expected goals per match during this current season, this was at 1.12 over the 18/19 season.
While they concede more shots per game than Leicester, this is most likely the result of Leicester’s possession-based game plan. Leicester average 54.2% possession in the league, while Wolves keep just 48.4%. Wolves’ system is much more defensively sound, and is based on playing on the counter. Since their promotion at the beginning of the 18/19 campaign, they have continuously proven to be a solid defensive unit.
Leicester’s defensive system, however, is essentially based on one man. This, of course, is Wilfried Ndidi.
The Nigerian has had an outstanding season at the base of midfield, and has been the key to Leicester’s surprising success. Brendan Rodgers operates in a progressive fashion, with fluid football at the heart of his ideals. This season, Leicester have primarily employed a 4-3-3/4-1-4-1 formation.
In what is in truth quite an attacking system, Ndidi is vital to maintaining the balance in the squad. Rodgers prefers to play Tielemans and Maddison alongside Ndidi in midfield, both of whom do very little defensive work. These players are the creative engines in the squad, and play almost as attacking midfielders at times. Although Rodgers has attempted to use Choudhury in midfield this season, this has been to the detriment of Leicester’s attacking play, as it has often meant that Maddison has been shifted out to the wing. Much of Leicester’s attacking threat comes from these advanced midfield players, as Maddison and Tielemans rank first and second for key passes in the Leicester squad.
The full-backs are also valuable offensive components in Rodgers’ system. Leicester’s wingers tend to play in more inverted roles, and therefore; the full-backs provide the width in the side. This means that Ndidi is often one of the few players left to defend. His role as a ball-winning midfielder has allowed Leicester to remain defensively secure despite their attacking system.
His defensive output has been immense, as he’s proven himself as one of the best defensive players in Europe this season. In the Premier League, he ranks top for tackles and interceptions per match. And in Europe’s top 5 leagues, it’s the same thing, with his 6.8 defensive actions per match the best on the continent. Only Ricardo Pereira and Eduardo Camavinga rank higher for tackles per game, showing just how omnipotent Ndidi has become.
And it’s clear to see the hole that he leaves when he’s out of the squad. Having missed just 4 Premier League matches this season, Brendan Rodgers certainly knows how vital he is to the side. And in these 4 matches, Leicester have struggled massively.
Just 6 times this season have Leicester conceded 2 or more goals in the league. 3 out of the 6 have come in matches in which Ndidi has been absent. In the 4 games that Ndidi has missed, Leicester have conceded 27% of their overall goals this season. The difference that he makes in this Leicester side is staggering. Given their high-possession gameplan, the chances they tend to give away are high quality opportunities coming from counter-attacking scenarios. With Ndidi at the base of midfield, this becomes a much smaller problem. The amount of defensive work that he puts in allows Leicester to play on the front foot with confidence in their defence. When this is taken away, they look a much more apprehensive side.
Ndidi is also a useful attacking component in Rodgers’ side, despite his reserved role.
In the Premier League this year, he is averaging 0.9 shots per 90. He is also dribbling 0.8 times per 90 and averaging 0.6 key passes in the process. Although none of these are outstanding attacking numbers, it shows that he does contribute in the final third from time to time. He’s also popped up with 2 goals this campaign, one of which was a crucial equalizer against top four rivals Chelsea.
When comparing this to the aforementioned Hamza Choudhury, Ndidi’s numbers actually look quite impressive. Although Choudhury has played further forwards at times, while he’s also made appearances from the bench when opponents are tired, his per 90 numbers are still inferior to Ndidi’s. His shot numbers are down at 0.8 while he’s averaging the same amount of key passes as Ndidi. Where there’s a more noticeable difference is in their dribbling. Ndidi’s 0.8 dribbles per 90 is far greater than Choudhury’s 0.3. This illustrates the progression that Ndidi brings to the side. Again, although these numbers aren’t massive, it’s impressive that the Nigerian is able to add something to the attack from the role that he plays in.
All of this, however, points towards a worrying reality for the Foxes. While it’s obviously brilliant to be in possession of such a world-class player, it looks as if they rely too heavily on their star man.
This has clearly made Rodgers’ side more fragile than it should be, which can be seen in their results when Ndidi has been absent. With Ndidi struggling for fitness recently, his absence has been particularly apparent. Even more worryingly, he could be set to miss this next match as well. He is currently suffering from a knee problem; the cause of his absence against Chelsea. Having missed three of Leicester’s last four games, it’s doubtful whether or not he’ll be able to return for this vital fixture.
This overreliance on a particular player can’t be good for this Leicester side, as the best teams in the league are sides with depth and quality across the squad.
Admittedly, Wolves have found themselves in a similar situation. For them, it’s Adama Traore who has been carrying a large burden for the rest of the squad.
Although they are far less reliant on Traore than Leicester are on Ndidi, Traore is the player who has allowed Wolves to continue their success of last year. In what has been a relatively underwhelming year for Wolves in truth, Traore has provided them with the X factor.
In many ways, Wolves have actually taken a step backwards this campaign. A number of their key players from last season have become less productive this year. However, Nuno Espirito Santo has navigated this brilliantly, with a couple of key tactical changes. Although this may have gone largely unnoticed, he has actually made big changes with his defensive personnel. Romain Saiss and Leander Denconcker have become increasingly involved at the back, with Boly and Bennett on the fringe of the starting eleven. Although Boly has been injured for the majority of the season, it seems unlikely that he’ll return as a regular starter given how well they’ve performed without him. Wolves are conceding 11.7 shots per game this campaign, an improvement on the 12.2 that they were facing last year.
The other big change, of course, is the change in formation that has allowed Adama Traore a starting place in the squad.
After starting last season with a 3-4-3 formation, they switched to a 3-5-2 midway through the year. This season, Santo has reverted back to the 3-4-3, in order to give Traore a slot on the right-hand side. And playing as a right-winger, he’s really made the difference in this Wolves side.
Similarly to Ndidi, Traore is an expert in his field. While Ndidi is a top defensive player, Traore is a superb dribbler. In Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, Traore’s 5.5 dribbles per match is only bettered by Neymar and Messi. This shows the level that he’s brought his dribbling to this season, as he is by far and away the outstanding dribbler in the Premier League.
This brings an incredible amount of progression to this Wolves side, something that they are in great need of. Last season they were able to progress the ball through their midfield players. However; Ruben Neves has experienced a huge dropoff this campaign, while Joao Moutinho is now 33. All of this has made Traore’s role even more vital, which is shown by the fact that 42% of Wolves’ attacks have come down the right-wing this season.
What’s perhaps more impressive, however, is the new found creativity that he’s added to his game. While his pace and strength have always allowed him to be a powerful dribbler, he’s honed in on his technical skills which has improved his game massively. This season he’s averaging 1.6 key passes per 90, having added some end product to his performances. He also ranks 2nd in the squad for expected assists, averaging 0.27 per 90. His telepathic relationship with Raul Jimenez has been another factor in his development, and the pair of them should be dangerous here.
The general majority would probably consider Leicester as the favourites for this one, due to their position in the league table. However, when looking deeper into this, they look a more fragile side. Their dependence on Wilfried Ndidi has already cost them in a number of games this year, and having sustained a knee injury recently it’s doubtful whether he’ll be able to return.
This could prove to be the difference in the match, especially against a team like Wolves who have been solid this season. Wolves currently sit in 9th after last weekend’s round of fixtures, but have every chance of moving up the table here. They’re just 6 points off of Chelsea in 4th, as they’ve slotted into what is a very congested area of the table. And as they look forward to this upcoming game, they will certainly have the prospect of European football on their minds.
Neither side have been in great form recently, having each won just 1 of their last 4 matches. But in what should be a tactically tense affair, I’m predicting a 2-1 Wolves win, as Leicester should struggle without their star asset.
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