One In One Out at Liverpool: How This Changes Their Prospects
Liverpool are one of the Premier League teams who have started their business early this summer, which has become a trend under Jurgen Klopp. The 80 million euro signing of young Uruguayan forward Darwin Nuñez was quickly proceeded by the expected departure of Sadio Mane to Bayern Munich. This, along with the signing of Luis Diaz in January, marks a change in Liverpool’s classic attacking setup.
Firstly, let’s dig into the Nuñez signing. €80 million is a lot. But when Klopp and Liverpool have gone big in the past, they haven’t often been wrong. Looking at the additions of Alisson and van Dijk, who were both acquired for upwards of €60 million, there seems to be a trend of high prices leading to high-quality performances when looking at Reds signings.
Both Alisson and van Dijk slotted immediately into Klopp’s team once being signed, and the large price tag on Darwin Nuñez’s head suggests the same might happen for the Uruguayan. Nuñez’s role in the team is somewhat obvious. With Mane’s departure, it seems as if it’s going to be a straight swap, with Nuñez slotting into that central forward position; where Mane played over the second half of last season.
This is also the position in which Nuñez is most comfortable. In his 24 Liga Portugal starts in 2021/22, 15 came as a central striker. The other 9 came from playing on the left-hand side. Klopp will admire this versatility, but will ultimately most likely be inclined to play Nuñez centrally given the absence of Mane and the slow fading of Jota and Firmino towards the end of last season.
Nuñez, however, is inconsistent with the type of striker Klopp tends to prefer. In many ways, Nuñez could be classified as a traditional number 9, in the sense that his greatest strength is by far is goal-scoring ability. In the 2021/22 Champions League season, in which his club Benfica reached the quarter-final, he scored 0.88 goals per 90, while simultaneously failing to manage a single assist.
His passing numbers and general build-up play are far from breathtaking. In this most recent Champions League season, he averaged just 10 completed passes per 90 with a completion rate of 54%. Nuñez is not a false-nine like Mane or Firmino.
These are two players that exemplify what Klopp has typically looked for from a central striker. They are players who can drop deep to take hold of possession or to create space for the attackers around them (Mane averaged 24.1 passes per 90 while Firmino averaged 41.4 passes per 90 in the Champions League last season). Nuñez seems to distinctly lack this ability.
Klopp also looks for someone who is a strong presser as well as someone who can dribble and progress the ball. Nuñez ticks all of these boxes. His pressing, dribbling and ball progression numbers match up well with Mane and Firmino from last season’s Champions League campaign. Nuñez is also fantastic aerially. This is crucial for Liverpool, a side that crossed the ball more than any other team in the Premier League last season. In the last Champions League campaign, Darwin Nuñez won 2.49 aerial duels per 90, 1.55 more than Sadio Mane.
This shows why Klopp would be able to pay so willingly for the Uruguayan. However, his passing numbers still raise some suspicion. Even in the Liga Portugal, where you would expect Benfica to have more control over their games, Nuñez averaged just 12.5 completed passes per 90. This could hint at a change in system.
Klopp and his team will undoubtedly be aware of the limitations in passing that Nuñez has displayed, and will know that they are getting more of an out-and-out striker. To pay this great a fee for a player that doesn’t fit Klopp’s current system to me indicates the start of something new.
This, alongside Liverpool’s seeming refusal to sign another midfield player despite a continuously aging midfield contingency, suggests a potential switch to a 4-2-3-1. This is a formation that Klopp has toyed with but has never settled on. Last season, it was often his go-to when Liverpool were struggling late on in games. This change frequently came through Divock Origi, who would come on as the central striker while Firmino or Mane dropped into a hybrid attacking midfield/false-nine position.
Like Nuñez, Origi is a more out-and-out striker, who employs a certain amount of brute force in the attacking third. Divock Origi was also typically less involved in build-up play when he came on, averaging 17.5 completed passes per 90 in the Champions League last season. It seems that the presence of an attacking midfielder allowed a more lethal yet less all-rounded central striker. This could be used to achieve the same effect yet again.
Firmino is the perfect man to play in this second striker role. He has always been a hybrid midfield/forward player as is shown by the player position chart below.
This is Liverpool’s player position chart from the last Premier League game in which Roberto Firmino played the full 90 minutes - a 2-0 home win over Watford. Firmino (number 9 on the chart) is seen in an incredibly deep-lying position. The chart shows that Liverpool’s wingers - in this case Salah and Jota - are well in advance of the Brazilian while he is nearly level with Liverpool’s midfield players as well as their full-backs.
Firmino has always operated as more of a midfield player. His shot numbers have consistently been lower than his winger counterparts as he averaged 2.7 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season compared to Luis Diaz’s 2.9 and Mo Salah’s 4.5. Firmino is a facilitator. In this potential 4-2-3-1, his role would largely stay the same.
At that point, the question is more about how this affects Liverpool’s other attacking players, and the system as a whole. Klopp has historically used a 4-3-3 system in order to get the most out of his wingers. Firmino’s ability to drop deep has allowed Mane and Salah to flourish and become the goalscoring wingers that they are today, as they have frequently been able to move into advanced positions.
However, Mane is now gone, while Salah’s role in this Liverpool side has already been changing. Over the last few years, and particularly in this most recent season, Salah has begun to act as more of a traditional winger. He consistently takes up wider and wider positions. The heat maps below illustrate the positions of Mo Salah in three home Liverpool games against Manchester City in the Premier League, in three different seasons.
2017/18 2019/20 2021/22
In the match from the 2017/18 season, Salah acted almost as a right-sided forward, but there has been a slow transition towards him becoming an out-and-out winger. It’s visible that in the most recent season, Salah was practically hugging the right touchline. This can be seen not only in matches against Manchester City but also as a general trend.
Much of this may be down to the shift away from Firmino as Liverpool’s starting striker. Last season, Jota and Mane acted as the main striking options. They are both players who act as more typical poachers and don’t drop deep in the same way that Firmino does.
Luckily, this didn’t seem to harm Salah’s performance. Salah enjoyed one of his best seasons in a Liverpool shirt, netting 23 goals and laying on an additional 13 assists in the Premier League alone. This bodes well for the shift to a 4-2-3-1.
If Klopp was to make this switch, Salah would most likely be required to take on a role as a more classic wide player, with more attacking space being occupied centrally by the striker and attacking midfielder. Based on the changes he has made during this most recent season, this should be manageable for the Egyptian forward.
Salah has just had his best ever creative season in the Premier League as he provided 13 assists, showing that he is perhaps ready to turn provider for another main goalscorer. Salah has so often been the go-to man for Liverpool when it comes to scoring. However, his well-rounded footballing ability means that he should theoretically be able to step back into a more supporting role.
In the Premier League last season, Salah averaged 1.99 key passes per 90; the best rate of his Liverpool career. The same can be said about expected assists, of which he averaged 0.34 per 90, and progressive passes, of which he averaged 4.01 per 90. All of this plays into the idea that Mo Salah is now more than ever capable of playing this role in a potential 4-2-3-1 formation.
On the other side, Luis Diaz should also be well suited to this system. His former team Porto played almost exclusively with two central attackers. Last season in the Liga Portugal Porto utilized a 4-4-2 in 22 of their 34 games, along with a 4-2-3-1 in a further 6 games. Despite playing with two central attackers, Luis Diaz managed to consistently find goalscoring positions, scoring 14 times in 18 Liga Portugal matches, while laying on a further 4 assists.
Ultimately, this shows that Nuñez’s supporting cast for next season should be able to adapt to his arrival. Klopp should be comfortable switching to a 4-2-3-1. In many cases it was effective last season, and with a real out-and-out striker at the club, it would be a logical and well-informed shift.
In Nuñez, Liverpool have purchased a confident and competent young striker, who has excelled in a difficult league at the age of 22. Will he be able to replace Mane’s output? Probably not; at least not straight away. But there aren’t many attackers in Europe who could.
Nuñez’s signing also represents a potential change. He does not match the profile of the current Liverpool attackers which is interesting considering Klopp’s consistent track record when it comes to signing new players. Although it’s not definite, the arrival of Darwin Nuñez could see Klopp move away from his long-standing 4-3-3 system.
Darwin Nuñez, as well as the knock-on effects of his arrival on Merseyside, will certainly be something to keep an eye on in pre-season and into the beginning of the Premier League campaign.
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