How Bruno Fernandes Fits in at United
By now, the news of Bruno Fernandes’ transfer to Manchester United has been well-documented by every major sports outlet. But let’s dig deeper into the transfer, and evaluate what it could mean for the Portuguese attacking midfielder and the buying club.
In what has been a relatively dull transfer window, Fernandes’ arrival at United has certainly spiced things up. The 25 year old who has long been linked with a number of top clubs has finally found his way back into one of Europe’s top 5 leagues. Not surprisingly, it’s Manchester United who have coughed up the cash. The attacking midfielder is the third most expensive departure from the Portuguese league of all time, and with add-ons, his transfer fee could rise to as much as 80 million Euros. This is certainly risky business for the Manchester side.
However, his numbers in Portugal are impressive to say the least. He spent two and a half years with Lisbon based club Sporting CP before making this big money move.
At the time of writing, Sporting sit in 3rd in Liga Nos; which is disappointing for a club of their stature. With a 19 point gap between themselves and Benfica in first, it’s fair to say that they’ve had an underwhelming campaign.
Bruno Fernandes though, has shone through in this period of gloom. Statistically, he’s been immense. In the Liga Nos this year, only Pizzi has bettered his 15 goal contributions (8 goals and 7 assists). His underlying numbers are also indicative of his dominance in Portugal.
His 3.7 key passes per 90 is the highest in the division, while he’s also shooting more than anyone in the league. His average of 3.5 shots per match is incredibly impressive, and is only bettered by Mohamed Salah in the Premier League. These shot numbers, however, are something to be wary of.
When looking into this, it’s clear to see why he takes so many shots. Out of the 3.5 shots he’s taking per match, only 1.1 are coming from inside the penalty area. While he is quite a good long-range shooter, it’s clear that he can be very wasteful when in possession, with 69% of his shots coming from outside the area. Even Phillipe Coutinho at Bayern, a player infamous for his long-range shots, is taking 57% of his shots from outside the box in the Bundesliga. In his last season with Liverpool in the Champions League, this was at just 35%. Is this something that United really want in their squad? With players such as Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba already taking a healthy amount of long shots, it’s questionable whether this adds anything to the team.
Where he could make a real impact, is with his creative abilities. Like mentioned earlier, he’s averaging 3.7 key passes per match, which is the best in Liga Nos and the same as Kevin De Bruyne is managing in the Premier League .
Paul Pogba has the best creative numbers in the United squad, and is averaging just 2.3 key passes per 90. And with the Frenchman injured, the next best tally is Andreas Pereira’s 1.4. Manchester United’s biggest problems have come through creativity this season. Solskjaer has built a solid defensive unit, with the second best defensive record in the league according to expected goals. His side have also been incredibly potent on the counter-attack, which has been shown in victories against Manchester City and Spurs this year. But when coming up against the more defensive sides in the league, Untied have lacked a player with the creative passing ability to break them down.
Playing as the attacking midfielder, Fernandes will likely be employed as the chief creator, both when on the counter and when in possession.
But how will he adjust to what is a much more competitive league? Although his numbers have been consistently astonishing in Portugal, this should be taken with a pinch of salt. After all, this is a country in which Bas Dost managed to bag 34 goals in a single league campaign. It’s interesting to look at how other players have adjusted to moves away from Portugal. Perhaps it’s more reasonable to compare Fernandes to Joao Felix. Felix broke out last season with Benfica, before sealing a 120 million Euro move to Atletico Madrid.
Since then, his numbers have certainly experienced a decline. His shots have dropped from 3.5 to 3, while his penalty area shots have decreased further; from 2.4 to 1.6 in the league. While he’s dribbling more now, his dribbling success rate has dropped off massively going from 56% completion to 34%. This indicates that he is struggling to cope with the increased quality of defending after moving to a top league. What’s perhaps most worrying, is the decline of his creative numbers. Prior to his switch to Spain, he was averaging 1.5 key passes per 90 in the league. Now, this has dropped to just 0.6. While this is quite possibly the result of a change to a more pragmatic system and role under Simeone, he still ranks 15th for key passes per match in the Atleti squad.
Although Fernandes is a more experienced player, Felix’s struggles could be indicative of what’s to come for the new Manchester United boy.
Fernandes did, however, play in Italy for a number of years, and perhaps this can paint a better picture of how he’s likely to perform in a top league.
Fernandes spent four seasons in Serie A, between the ages of 19 and 23. Over this span, he played for Udinese for 3 seasons, and most recently Sampdoria in the 16/17 campaign. In this last season in Italy, Fernandes scored 5 goals and assisted a further 2 in just over 1700 league minutes. This equates to a goal contribution every 246 minutes in the league. While this is obviously a drop off from his rate of one every 102 minutes in Portugal this season, it shows that he was a solid contributor during his time in Northern Italy. For a player of just 23 years old, these numbers are quite promising.
His underlying numbers during this final season were impressive as well. During the 16/17 campaign, he maintained an average of 3.2 shots per 90, while also making 2.7 key passes. Again, these are down on his numbers in Portugal, but show that he’s capable of performing against higher quality opponents. Expected goals also shows how useful he was for Sampdoria. In his only season for the club, he averaged 0.53 expected goals and assists per 90, which is superb for a midfielder of that age. Going back to the Coutinho comparison, the Brazilian is at 0.82 this campaign.
Interestingly, Philippe Coutinho played in Serie A at a similar age to Fernandes.
Coutinho spent 3 years at Inter Milan, between the ages of 18 and 21. He was, of course, limited to far fewer minutes than Fernandes though; the result of playing at a far bigger club. During this time, his numbers are quite comparable to Fernandes’. In Coutinho’s last season at Inter, he was averaging 4.4 shots per 90. His key passes, however, were far lower at 1.2. This is another promising sign for Fernandes, as Coutinho has gone on to become a solid creative player for a top club in Europe. The fact that Fernandes was bettering his creative numbers shows his potential use for United.
Delving into Fernandes’ European numbers can also provide a greater sense of his value.
As Sporting are one of the major clubs in Portugal, they have often qualified for both the Europa League and the Champions League in recent seasons. For each of the last two years, they’ve been limited to a spot in the Europa League, but in 17/18, they played in the Champions League group stage. This means that Fernandes has had the chance to prove himself at the highest level, and has gained European experience.
Quite frankly, he’s been outstanding in the Europa League this season. In 5 appearances for Sporting, he’s scored 5 and assisted 3. In fact, his numbers would suggest that he is a better player when playing in Europe. In the Europa League this season, he’s been averaging 4.8 shots per 90. This is 1.3 more than in the league. 70% of these shots, however, have come from outside the box, which is marginally more than his rate in Liga Nos. His dribbling numbers have also increased in the Europa League while he’s being dispossessed less per match. The one worrying sign from his European campaign is his creative downfall. When compared to the 3.5 key passes per 90 that he averages in Liga Nos, 1.8 in the Europa League looks meager. Although this is problematic, you wouldn’t expect it to be a huge issue for United.
This creative fault is simply a minor blip on what is a fantastic European record for Fernandes. With the new UEFA rules, Fernandes will be allowed to play an integral role in Manchester United’s Europa League campaign, as they look to continue their progression in that competition.
In truth, the signing of Bruno Fernandes looks incredibly reasonable on paper. Although it’s hard to know how his Liga Nos numbers will translate to the Premier League, he’s performed across the entirety of his career, in various competitions.
At 25 he’s not young, but he is approaching the peak of his career, and could provide United with a talisman going forwards. Solskjaer’s team is desperate for a creative midfielder at the moment, and Fernandes could be just that from the tip of midfield. I’ve likened him to Phillipe Coutinho already in this entry, and if United could get a player of similar class to Bayern’s Brazilian than they could be in real business. Throughout his career, Fernandes has put up similar or even better numbers than Coutinho. When considering that Coutinho cost Barcelona 140 million Euros just a couple of years back, Fernandes’ 55 million Euro price tag seems much more reasonable.
What United can’t afford to do, is stop here. Greater problems remain as they are still in need of a progressive midfielder, especially if Pogba were to leave in the summer. For now, however, the signing of Fernandes looks like a step in the right direction for the Glazers, Ed Woodward, and Manchester United.
Comments