Thiago to Liverpool: Would it Work?
In a rather surprising turn of events, Bayern’s midfield maestro Thiago Alcantara looks prepared to swap German champions for the English equivalent. The midfielder is clearly a fantastic footballer, but at 30 million euros is he the right signing for Liverpool?
At 29, the central midfielder is entering the latter stages of his career but certainly still has plenty to offer. Along with this, he has openly admitted that he is looking for a new challenge with Liverpool being his preferred destination.
The problem at the moment is in the price tag. Liverpool are reportedly reluctant to pay the 30 million euro sum of money that Bayern Munich are requesting. They see Thiago’s valuation at just 20 million euros, as the midfielder’s contract is set to expire in just a year.
However, if Liverpool fail to meet this price-tag quickly, another club could easily swoop in. At the time of writing, Bayern are yet to give in to Liverpool’s demands as there are apparently several other clubs interested in the Spaniard’s signature. Is Thiago worth the reported fee, or should Liverpool hold off and look to improve in other areas?
First of all, let’s take a look into Thiago’s role at Bayern Munich. Thiago has played with the Bavarian giants for an impressive seven years. In recent seasons he has acted almost entirely as a deep-lying playmaker, typically in a double-pivot in front of the backline.
Thiago is the type of midfielder that any big club would love to have amongst their ranks. He’s an incredible progressive passer and he’s also extremely press-resistant in midfield. He gets Bayern going forwards in a way that not many midfielders in the world can.
The problem here is that Liverpool don’t currently operate with this type of midfielder under Klopp. The German tactician has much preferred energetic pressing midfielders when building this Liverpool squad.
This can be seen in the likes of Henderson, Wijaldum, Fabinho, and Milner; all midfielders who prefer to do the dirty work. Although these players aren’t necessarily the most technically-gifted, they’ve found themselves starting consistently in one of the best teams in the world.
Klopp’s high-pressing, high-intensity approach to football means he requires this type of midfield player. While I’m not saying that Thiago doesn’t offer this, his role at Bayern is certainly of a different manner.
At the moment, it’s almost difficult to see where Thiago would fit in. His most natural role would be as the central player in Liverpool’s midfield three. However, Fabinho is the player who currently operates this role and it’s hard to see him being dislodged from Klopp’s system any time soon.
Klopp seems to prefer more of a hardman in this position. Over recent seasons at Liverpool, it’s been Fabinho and Henderson who have occupied this role. Neither player is flashy when on the ball but they are comfortable dropping into a back three when required both when building out from the back and when defending.
This is what allows Liverpool’s full-backs to play so high up the pitch and create chances. While Thiago drops deep to build-up play at Bayern, he doesn’t do so as frequently when his side are defending. He also takes on more of a roaming role at Bayern whilst Fabinho is required to remain rigid in his positioning.
It’s also difficult to see Thiago getting in on the right side of Liverpool’s midfield three. After Henderson began playing there midway through last season he’s been practically immovable on the Liverpool right.
Again, this is largely due to the energy and workman-like attitude that he possesses. Although a lot of what he does might be perceived as rather “average”, his pressing numbers are phenomenal in that position. In the Premier League this past season, Henderson averaged 6.8 successful pressures per 90, which ranks in the 80th percentile among midfielders.
In Liverpool’s current set-up, the right-sided midfielder essentially leads the press. While the front three attempts to hold the opposition back, the right-sided midfielder comes forward and provides a fourth man, often creating a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-4 formation.
In the image above, Henderson is coming from his midfield position to join the frontline. While Liverpool’s wingers close the field horizontally, Henderson is required to help Firmino in the center of the pitch particularly if Liverpool’s opponents are playing with two defensive midfielders.
In the situation shown, Salah had committed centrally and therefore wasn’t covering City left-back Angelino. Henderson read the situation and stepped into a wide position which forced City to go backwards.
It’s hard to see Thiago playing in this role. Perhaps one of the Spaniard’s few weaknesses is his pressing. In the Bundesliga this season he is averaging just 5.13 successful pressures per 90, which ranks in the 32nd percentile among midfielders.
If he were to play on the Liverpool right it’s hard to see him keeping up with the type of press that Klopp employs. At Bayern, he plays in a more reserved defensive role, where he is required to sweep in front of his side’s back four.
This means that Thiago’s most feasible role at Liverpool is on the left of their midfield three. He certainly suits this role best. The left-sided midfielder in Klopp’s system has the least defensive responsibility of the three and is typically on the ball the most when going forwards.
Klopp hasn’t necessarily settled on a starter in this position either. Wijnaldum, Milner, Lallana, and Oxlade-Chamberlain have all played in this role over the last couple of seasons.
However, the emergence of Naby Keita towards the end of last season is certainly something to consider. The Guinean international was arguably Liverpool’s best player after the restart as he finally looks injury-free. Is it worth bringing Thiago in if it means Keita’s minutes are limited once again?
In many ways, Keita and Thiago offer similar things. They both provide a superb range of progressive passing, they are both incredibly press-resistant in midfield, and they both put up impressive defensive numbers. Essentially, they are both the quintessential all-rounded midfielder.
In this graphic, Keita’s stats are outlined in black. These numbers represent each player’s output during last season’s league campaign. And as you can see, Keita actually outperformed Thiago in a number of areas last season, despite being four years younger.
The Guinean is a better creative player but what’s most impressive is his superb output in terms of successful pressures. He averages nearly 3.5 more successful pressures per 90 minutes than Thiago, which is obviously crucial in Jurgen Klopp’s high-intensity system.
It’s also interesting to compare Keita to his former self. When looking at his output in 2019/20 separately to 2018/19, you can see just how much of an improvement he has made. Now that he has fully bedded into Klopp’s system, he looks to be one of Liverpool’s best players.
At the end of last season, we saw just what Naby Keita was capable of. I think this is one of the main reasons why we still haven’t seen Liverpool match Bayern’s asking price. They certainly aren’t desperate, as they have capable players in every midfield role.
So with all this in mind, is it really worth signing a player who might not slot into an immediate first-team role? In my opinion, and in the opinion of many Liverpool fans, it certainly is.
Although Thiago doesn’t have a clear place in Jurgen Klopp’s current system, a player of his quality should be able to adapt his game to whatever side he’s playing in. At Bayern, we’ve seen him play a multitude of contrasting roles over the years and he’s rarely looked out of place in one of the world’s biggest clubs.
Also, Liverpool need depth and rotation options. With Wijnaldum potentially departing this summer and with Milner aging, central-midfield is certainly an area in which Klopp could strengthen. As Premier League champions, looking to push for the title next season, Liverpool need to be constantly looking to add to their squad.
A player like Thiago could really be perfect in this regard. He offers Klopp a wealth of experience as well as the ability to play in all three midfield roles to a decent extent. He also provides extreme value for money in terms of his current ability.
In this current climate, the deal makes perfect sense. Thiago wants Liverpool and Liverpool want Thiago. The player who has just recently won an outstanding treble with Bayern Munich would add undoubted quality to Jurgen Klopp’s side.
When a player of Thiago’s caliber is available at below market value, someone is bound to make a move. Whether Liverpool are that club this summer we’ll have to wait and see. There is a clear interest in Thiago from the Reds but their rigid financial structure and mindset that has served them so well over the past few years might mean they miss out on this deal, for better or for worse.
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