Why Newcastle Need More than a Load of Money
With rumours of a takeover at Newcastle ramping up over the last few weeks, many discussions have been sparked about how the club will be run under the new owners. If the reported takeover were to go through, Newcastle would be owned by a consortium backed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Bin Salman.
Needless to say, this would give Newcastle huge financial backing, with a few ridiculous transfer rumours already floating around. However, as we’ve seen time and time again, the way you use your money is far more important than the amount that you spend.
As is the nature of today’s media, the likes of Jovic, Coutinho, Cavani and even Gareth Bale have all been linked with a move to St. James’ Park in the summer. However, these players would all come with a hefty price tag, as well as monumental wages for a side of Newcastle’s stature. If Newcastle are to be taken over, their best bet is to spend smart, and avoid going for these big-name, “statement” players.
While the marketing aspect of this transfer strategy makes some sense, there are bargains to be had that would better prepare the club for the longer term. Especially given the current financial situation across the globe, many players will be available at a cut-price fee.
Also, many of the players that Newcastle have been linked with recently are players who wouldn’t fit in with their current squad. Newcastle are actually quite strong in attack, with the likes of Almiron and Saint-Maximin being a couple of their best players. With this in mind, it doesn’t make sense to bring in the likes of Bale and Coutinho over players in other positions.
These signings don’t make sense under the current philosophy at the club either. With Steve Bruce at the helm, Newcastle are a very defensive side, who keep very little of the ball. Bringing in star attackers to play under Bruce just doesn’t make sense, as he’s not likely to get their best out of them.
In fact, if Newcastle are to progress notably, they’re most likely going to have to part ways with their current manager. Although Newcastle sit 13th in the league at the moment, they really can’t go much further under Steve Bruce. Also, they’ve been incredibly lucky this season, and their underlying statistics would suggest that they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league.
Based on expected points, Newcastle sit bottom of the league. Their tally of just 22 expected points is 13 worse off than they are in real life, indicating the fortune that has gone into their position in the league table.
Offensively, Newcastle have really struggled this campaign. Like mentioned earlier, Bruce prefers a defensively compact system, with not much license for his side to go forward. His 5-4-1 is perhaps the most extreme of defensive formations, with the sole goal of crowding the box and keeping the opposition out.
This is shown in their average possession, which sits at just 40.8%, and is good enough for bottom of the division. Their shot numbers are also relatively low, as they rank 17th for shots per match in the Premier League. What’s even worse, their expected goals tally for the season ranks bottom of the division, indicating that they aren’t taking shots from dangerous areas.
When watching Newcastle, their problems clearly stem from their inability to get men into forward areas. They rarely keep possession of the ball for an extended period, meaning they never get the chance to establish themselves in the opposition half. Most of their attacks result from the individual quality of either Saint-Maximin or Almiron bringing the ball forward, or from resulting set-pieces. Because of this, Newcastle will definitely be looking to address the midfield come the summer.
Newcastle’s midfield has been one of the weakest areas in their team this year. Neither of the Longstaff brothers offer much of anything to their side, particularly from a creative perspective. Combined, they average just 1.1 key passes per game. They don’t progress the ball either, completing just 0.7 dribbles per match between them.
Even defensively they’re rather ineffective. While Sean Longstaff offers a mediocre 2.3 tackles and interceptions per 90, Matty Longstaff completes very little defensive work. His 1.1 tackles and interceptions per 90 rank him 20th in the Newcastle squad. At current, Jonjo Shelvey is the only Newcastle central midfielder who really offers anything worthwhile.
In what has been an average season for the Magpies, particularly offensively, Shelvey has managed to stand out relative to the rest of the squad. He currently leads the squad for key passes per match on 1.8. He also completes more passes per match than any Newcastle player who has played more than 1000 minutes this season. However, Shelvey is 28 now, and Newcastle seriously need to start looking for midfield alternatives.
Although the players that Newcastle should sign all depends on the system and manager that they’ll eventually playing under, there are a couple of players that they could go after. What Newcastle really need is a progressive midfielder or someone who can play as an attacking playmaker. Someone who is comfortable on the ball so that they fit into a system under a more progressive manager that Newcastle might end up with.
A player who might be perfectly suited to this role is Rodrigo de Paul. The Argentine attacking midfielder is having another solid season with Udinese in Serie A, and it’s surprising that he hasn’t yet been picked up by a bigger club. His creative and progressive numbers are very impressive in Italy, and he could be of much use to a top-half Premier League side.
In Serie A this season, de Paul is averaging 2.2 key passes as well as 2.3 shots per game. Although he has assisted just twice in the league this season, expected assists estimates that this should be closer to 5 times. This isn’t bad in just 22 starts, especially in a side like Udinese who are very offensively limited.
De Paul’s 0.24 expected assists per 90 is good enough for him to rank within the 84th percentile among attacking midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues. To put this into some more context, Newcastle’s leading player in this metric is Allan Saint-Maximin, who averages 0.20 expected assists per 90. De Paul also ranks 14th in Serie A for successful dribbles per match on 2, proving his ability to progress the ball.
De Paul is well above average in his abilities to both create chances and progress play; this is perfect for a club like Newcastle. Also, de Paul is a versatile player who could offer cover in multiple positions. Although he plays primarily as an attacking midfielder, he could drop deeper into a midfield three or even play further forward as a winger or striker as he has done in the past.
While de Paul would offer a more advanced midfield option, operating as more of a playmaker, Newcastle could also be in the market for a deeper central midfielder. De Paul is an incredible creative player as seen in the graph above (yellow bars being creative statistics) but he offers very little defensively. If he were to be playing alongside Shelvey in a midfield three, or potentially further up the field, Newcastle could find themselves open through the middle.
Another player in Italy who Newcastle could look to snap up is Ismael Bennacer. The Algerian defensive midfielder has been superb in his first season at AC Milan, and looks like a statistical phenomenon at just 22. Although it’s only his first season at the San Siro, he was bought for just 16 million euros last summer. If Milan were offered twice that, they might consider selling.
It’s fair to say that Bennacer would easily be worth that money. He’s having a stellar season at his new club this year, and looks like one of the most well-rounded young midfielders in Europe. Bennacer has racked up 18 starts from a possible 26 is Serie A this season, and has been key to the small amount of success that Milan have managed.
Defensively, Bennacer is exactly the sort of player that Newcastle need. The defensive midfielder is diminutive, at just 5’8”, but carries a large physical presence. He completes the most tackles in the Milan squad per match, on 2.4. He makes a total of 4.1 tackles and interceptions per match which is bumped up to 5 when adjusted for possession.
However, Bennacer also provides a use when going forwards. The progression that he brings from his position at the base of midfield is unrivalled for someone who does as much defensive work as he does. His 3 dribbles per 90 ranks in the 97th percentile for all central midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues. His 6.1 passes into the final third per 90 ranks in the 86th percentile.
Although de Paul would add progression to the side, he would be playing in a far more advanced role. Bennacer could offer progression from deep in midfield, while also stabilizing the midfield defensively.
Bennacer has played in a midfield three this season, but there’s no reason why he couldn’t operate in a two as well. He’s been at his best when playing as a midfield anchor, sitting in front of the defence and progressing the ball. This is where he would most likely fit in at Newcastle, with Shelvey and potentially Rodrigo de Paul sitting in front of him. Although these are rather attacking players, Bennacer’s immense defensive contribution would help to balance the midfield.
Although he might be harder to obtain than some of the other players Newcastle will be after, he’s certainly worth taking a look at. Transfermarkt value Bennacer at just 16 million euros, but he would likely leave for around 30 to 40 million if he were sold. An alternative to Bennacer would be Nabil Bentaleb. Newcastle brought him in on loan in January, and he would be available for a much lower price.
In just 3 starts for the Magpies, the Algerian has looked solid playing in midfield. Having been alienated from the Schalke side in the first half of the side, he’s settled in quite nicely at Newcastle, and the club could look to make the deal permanent.
In limited minutes, Bentaleb has been putting up 5.6 tackles and interceptions per match. However, this is the first season since his days in Tottenham in which he has averaged more than 3 tackles and interceptions per match in league play. While this could indicate a switch in role from his time at Schalke, this data must also be taken with a pinch of salt given how little he has played.
Bentaleb is a pretty versatile midfielder, and also offers something from a progressive standpoint. Still, while this signing would be a useful one, Bennacer should be Newcastle’s main target this summer.
Newcastle also need to solve problems in their defence. Although the Magpies haven’t actually conceded much this season, this has largely been down to their defensive style of play. When looking closer at individuals, there are some serious gaps to fill.
At full-back, Newcastle have brought a number of players in on loan. The likes of Danny Rose, Jetro Willems and Valentino Lazaro have all come in on loan until the end of the season. This leaves the club in a rather precarious situation, with quite little full-back quality in the squad. If possible, both Danny Rose and Valentino Lazaro would be adequate solutions for the full-back positions. If the chance to sign either of these two were to arise, then Newcastle should definitely look into making the signing.
However, these players might not be easy to sign from their parent clubs. If they were to fail in signing these players, there are a couple of alternatives that they could take a look at. The first is Pervis Estupiñan, a left-back who is currently playing for Osasuna in La Liga.
Estupiñan is just 22, and is actually on loan from Watford in the Premier League, but has impressed in Spain this season. At such a young age, he’s shown a versatile skill set in a newly promoted Osasuna side. His contributions, particularly defensively, have allowed Osasuna to climb up to 11th in La Liga.
Estupiñan is an incredible defensive full-back. In La Liga this season, he is averaging 4.5 tackles and interceptions per match, elite numbers for someone in his position. He’s also quite handy going forward. His 1.85 successful dribbles per 90 ranks within the 89th percentile for full-backs, while he’s also on 0.09 expected assists per 90. Although his main strengths lie in his defensive contribution, he can provide a threat on the attack as well.
Given his age, he would be a great all-round full-back for Newcastle. Especially if a more progressive manager were to come in, the defesive side of Newcastle’s game would need to improve massively. Estupiñan would be the perfect signing, and out of Watford he wouldn’t likely cost more than 20 million euros.
On the other side of defence, Kevin Mbabu could be a viable option. At 25, Mbabu is playing in one of Europe’s top 5 leagues for the first time in his career, having been playing in Switzerland previously. This season, playing for Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, Mbabu has surprised many. In truth, Wolfsburg have surprised many, sitting in 6th in their division while keeping the 5th best defensive record in Germany.
Mbabu has played a big part in this. While he isn’t quite as solid defensively as Estupiñan, his 4.1 tackles and interceptions per match is still impressive. Like Estupiñan, he’s also a fantastic dribbler. Mbabu completes 2.49 successful dribbles per 90, with a 65% completion rate.
Both Estupiñan and Mbabu would be fantastic options for any club, and should be realtively cheap as well. If Newcastle were to fail in securing the signings of either Rose or Lazaro, these players should definitely be considered.
The final position that Newcastle could look to strengthen is center-back. Although the club have a couple of decent players in this position already, there is still room for improvement. Both Jamaal Lascelles and particularly Fabian Schar have shown glimpses of quality this season. However, neither of these players are entirely solid options, and they could be exposed if a change in system occured.
If Newcastle were to switch to a back four, Schar might find it more dificult, with less protection around him. Even if Newcastle were to stick with a back three or five, they would need another top quality center-back. 21 year old Malang Sarr could definitely provide this. Currently playing for Nice in Ligue Un, Sarr’s contract is set to run out in the summer, and he should be available on a free shortly.
Surprisingly, interest in Sarr has been relatively low. At such a young age, Sarr clearly has a bright future ahead of him, with 4 seasons of first-team football already under his belt. Although it’s always a gamble to take a player from France, there is no big monetary risk that would factor into the signing of Sarr.
Sarr is a great ball-playing defender. In Ligue Un this season, Sarr has kept a 90% pass completion rate, and has averaged 60 passes per match. His 668 progressive yards per 90 ranks within the 95th percentile for center-backs, showing that he is comfortble playing out from the back, and playing forward into dangerous areas. His defensive stats aren’t superb by any means, averaging 2.9 tackles and interceptions per match, but this is something that will improve over time.
A lot of this is also down to his rather passive nature. He isn’t the type of center-back to step out of the line and make a tackle. With someone like Ismael Bennacer in front of him, however, this wouldn’t be a huge problem. Sarr might not make a huge immediate impact in the Premier League, but would set a solid foundation for the future that Newcastle are trying to create. And for free, it’s almost more of a risk not to sign him.
In general, this is the approach that Newcastle should take to signing players. Although there is always an urge to go out and splash your cash on one big-name signing, this isn’t always the most effective strategy.
In this article, I’ve outlined five players who Newcastle could sign that would help improve the squad, but at a much cheaper price. Especially given the current financial situation, these players could most likley be purchased at a combined price of less than 100 million euros. None of these players are particularly old either, and would signal a new era at the club under their potential new owners.
If Newcastle do eventually get taken over, they need to spend smart. Having a lot of money is great, but it means nothing if you don’t do the right things with it.
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